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RCED-85-11 1 (1985-06-19)

handle is hein.gao/gaobabfdc0001 and id is 1 raw text is: /.4 1.40


BY THE U.S. GENERAL ACCOUNTING OFFICE

Report To The Chairman, Subcommittee On

Energy Conservation And Power

Committee On Energy And Commerce

House Of Representatives





Probabilistic Risk Assessment: An Emerging

Aid To Nuclear Power Plant Safety Regulation




Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a method of quan-
tifying the probabilities of potential accidents and their
consequences at nuclear power plants. PRA analysts use
complex computer models to help them predict which
risks appear to be the greatest and to identify corrective
actions that address factors contributing to those risks.
Nuclear utilities and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission
(NRC) have used PRA since 1975 to help improve plant
safety and thereby reduce risks to human health and the
environment.
GAO believes that NRC is making reasonable use of PRA.
However, the uses and effectiveness of PRA are still evolv-
ing. Since relatively few empirical data on actual plant
accidents are available, PRA analyses are and will con-
tinue to be affected by many unknowns and uncertainties
about internal plant behavior, as well as external events,
such as floods. GAO therefore cautions that NRC should
not use PRA risk estimates as the sole or primary basis for
regulatory decisions. Rather, NRC should use PRA to
supplement its more traditional analytical and engineer-
ing methods.

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                           (M   3                         GAO/RCED-5-1I
                                                            JUNE 19, 1985

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