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EMD-81-104 1 (1981-06-25)

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         UNITED STATES GENERAL ACCOUNTING OFFICE
                WASHINGTON, D.C. 20548
           r:,4L IEASED


ENERGY AND MINERALS
    DIVISION


B-203767


June 25, 1981


The Honorable Henry M. Jackson
Ranking Minority Member
Committee on Energy and Natural Resources
United States Senate

Dear Senator Jackson:


Subject:


Minerals Critical to Developing Future
Energy Technologies, Their Availability,
and Projected Demand (EMD-81-104)


     The next 20 to 30 years are expected to be a period of
transition from major dependence on conventional energy sources
such as oil and natural gas to an era more dependent on noncon-
ventional renewable and virtually inexhaustible sources of
energy. The viability of these future alternative energy
sources is contingent, in part, on future materials and min-
erals availability, technology, and cost.

     On June 20, 1980, you asked GAO to identify minerals crit-
ical to developing future energy technologies, their availa-
bility, and projected demand. In your letter, you stated that
strategic and critical minerals constraints on the United States
capability to meet expected requirements of future major alter-
native energy technologies represent a critical consideration
in formulating a national energy policy and, as such, are of
immediate interest to the Committee. From GAO's effort, you
stated that the Committee should be able to identify whether
legislation is needed to develop new alloys or substitutes;
increase domestic, foreign, and undersea supplies; develop
new technologies; promote recycling; augment stockpiles, etc.

     Our initial effort found that no Federal agency collects
data in a form that can be used to show how much of any given
mineral goes to the energy industries or to project demand for
minerals by the various energy technologies. Further, a capa-
bility for providing valid, reasonably reliable projections of
demand for and supply of minerals by the energy technologies
had not been developed within either the public or private
sector.

     As agreed with your office, GAO and the Lawrence Berkeley
Laboratory developed a methodology to evaluate projected energy-
related demand for nonfuel minerals. The methodology modified
                                                        (008422)


q5 2


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