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ID-78-32 1 (1978-05-12)

handle is hein.gao/gaobaaxih0001 and id is 1 raw text is: DOCGRENT RESUE 06010 - (B13663691 Critical Factors Affecting Saudi Arabia4s Oil Decisions. ID-78-32; B-178205. Bay 12, 1978. 59 pp. + 6 appendices (9 pp.). Report to the Co3gzss; by Elmer B. Staats, Comptroller General. Issue Area: Energy (1600); International Economic and Bilitary Programs (600). Contact: International Div. Budget Function: Natural Resources, Environment, and Energy (300); Natural Resources, Environment, and ZnergFy Energy (305). Organization Concerned: Departmeat of Energy; Department of State; Department of Defense; Department of Commerce; Department of the treasury. congressional Relevance: HoUse Committee on :nterstfte and Foreign Commerce; Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources; Congress. authority: Export Administration Amendments of 1977 (P.L. 95-52). Saudi Arabia his a vital role in meeting world enerly needs because it has over 259 of the free worldes known oil reserves and the ability to increase or decrease oil production. Various studies on the world energy outlook coaclude that before the end of this century world oil supplies will te insufficient to meet demand under as orderly marketing system. Factors affecting the ability and willingness of Saudi Arabia to expand future petroleum production to meet incremental world demand were examined. Findings/Conclusionr: Continued increases in Saudi Arabian oil production to meet world demand cannot be taken for granted. Saudi Arabia's capability and willingness to increase its petroleum production is dependent on many interre ted technical, operational, political, and economic factors. Although there are ao Insurmountable technical problems which would prevent a large increase in productive capacity. other operatinq and management considerations affecting petroleum operations include: the future role of the Arabian-American Oil Company, the security of oil operations* increased management burden stemming from the size of expansion plans, logistical and social Froblems associated with a srgy* in the number of foreign employees, unforeseen emergencies impairing the petroleum system, and a desire tc broaden the domestic industrial base. Saudi officials are concerned akiut U.S. willingness to use ifluence with Israel to bring about lasting peace in the Riddle last and to approve their request for 1-15 aircraft. Saudi Arabia's ability to use effectively its mounting oil revenues could be an important factor in future oil decisions. It is obvious that U.S. energy policy must emphasize reducing dependence on foreign oil. (315)

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