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B-167656 1 (1973-02-20)

handle is hein.gao/gaobaafyz0001 and id is 1 raw text is: UNITED STATES GENERAL ACCOUNTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20548 MANPOWER AND WELFARE DI VISiON B-167656 LM9668FEB 1973 / The Honorable Donald E. Johnson Administrator of Veterans Affairs Dear Mr. Johnson: We have reviewed the methodologo-lo0.sg.y.the,-Veterans Adiis-t~r nVA) pr jnct,,:ng ,its hospi.tal-and nursing ho , _eds. The review was performed in VA medical region -hich includes VA hospitals in northern California and western Nevada--and at the VA Central Office. At the time of our fieldwork, the latest projections of bed requirements for the region were those which were pre- pared in March 1971 and which forecasted bed requirements at 5-year intervals from 1975 through 1990. We believe that, although the methodology for estimating future bed require- ments may be conceptually sound, the ,tb,.ase-.u-&ed-.for the pro~jtipns can be improved. VA's projection methodology incorporates a £ s na- tipAni epvaence. rate-l-projectedfTonm3 -zbase years. This rate, applied to the estimated veteran population for a given period, results in a 1-day bed demand. This bed demand figure is adjusted for (1) anticipated changes in delivering health care and (2) a regional correction factor designed to-adjust for those local social and economic factors which would af- fect the hospitalization pattern. Our review of VA's projections of bed requirements for the region showed that: --Data supporting the determination of prevalence rates was not the most current. --Regional correction factors were limited to a 1-year base period. Relates the expected number of veterans institutionalized for medical care on a given day to the number of veterans on that day. ZQJ-< ffl~

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