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VnzCongresional Research Service
Venezuela: Poli;tca isis an U.s. Policy
The political situation in Venezuela is at a stalemate. High-
level military leaders did not back interim President Juan
Guaid6's April 30, 2019, call for an uprising against the
regime of Nicolfis Maduro. Clashes between pro-Guaid6
protesters and security forces have resulted in at least four
deaths and hundreds of injuries. Guaid6 hopes sustained
protests and strikes, combined with international pressure,
will compel Maduro to leave office.
Background on the Poitical and Economic Crisis
Venezuela remains in a deep crisis under Maduro's
authoritarian rule. Maduro, leader of the United Socialist
Party of Venezuela (PSUV), was narrowly elected in 2013
after the death of populist President Hugo ChAvez, who had
served since 1999. Most Venezuelans and much of the
international community considered Maduro's May 2018
reelection illegitimate. Maduro has used the courts, security
forces, and electoral council to quash dissent. According to
the human rights organization Foro Penal, the regime held
790 political prisoners as of mid-April 2019.
Maduro's regime has mismanaged the economy and
engaged in massive corruption, exacerbating the impact of a
decline in global oil prices and collapsing oil production on
the country's economy. According to the International
Monetary Fund, Venezuela's economy contracted by 18%
in 2018. Inflation may exceed 10 million percent in 2019.
Shortages in food and medicine, declines in purchasing
power, and a collapse of social services have created a
humanitarian crisis. According to household surveys, the
percentage of Venezuelans living in poverty reached 87%
in 2017. U.N. officials estimate that some 7 million people
are in need of humanitarian assistance. Health indicators,
particularly infant and maternal mortality rates, have
worsened. Previously eradicated diseases like diphtheria
and measles have returned and spread. In March 2019, U.N.
agencies estimated that at least 3.7 million Venezuelans had
left the country, 3 million of whom were in Latin America
and the Caribbean. Migrant flows could increase, as recent
electrical blackouts have worsened conditions considerably.
Interim Government Challenges Maduro Regime
Since January 2019, the democratically elected, opposition-
controlled National Assembly and its president, Juan
Guaid6, have sought to establish an interim government.
The United States and 53 other countries (including most of
the European Union [EU] and 15 Western Hemisphere
countries) now recognize Guaid6 as interim president of
Venezuela and view the National Assembly as Venezuela's
only democratic institution. Despite their backing, Maduro
remains in power.
The National Assembly elected Guaid6 as its president on
January 5, 2019; he is a 35-year-old industrial engineer
from the Popular Will (VP) party. In mid-January, Guaid6
Updated May 3, 2019
announced he was willing to serve as interim president until
new presidential elections are held. Buoyed by a massive
turnout for protests he called for, Guaid6 took the oath of
office on January 23, 2019. Under Guaid6's leadership, the
National Assembly has since enacted resolutions declaring
Maduro's mandate illegitimate, establishing a framework
for a transition government, drafting a proposal to offer
amnesty for officials who support the transition, and
creating a strategy for receiving humanitarian assistance.
Guaid6's supporters have organized two high-profile efforts
to encourage security forces to abandon the regime, neither
of which has succeeded. On February 23, they sought to
bring emergency supplies donated from the United States
and others positioned on the Colombia- and Brazil-
Venezuela borders into the country. Security forces loyal to
Maduro killed seven individuals (four indigenous people)
and injured hundreds as they prevented the aid convoys
from crossing the border. While that aid remains blocked,
both Guaid6 and Maduro agreed to allow the International
Committee of the Red Cross to begin providing aid.
On April 30, 2019, Guaid6 and Leopoldo L6pez, a former
political prisoner and head of the VP party who had been
released from house arrest by pro-Guaid6 military officials,
called for a civil-military rebellion against the Maduro
regime. Forces loyal to Maduro violently put down pro-
Guaid6 demonstrations and attacked several journalists.
The regime took several media outlets off the air and
blocked social media. As the day ended, L6pez sought
refuge in the Spanish Embassy.
Many observers regard the military's participation as
essential for the opposition's transition plan to work. For
now, however, aside from the former head of the national
intelligence agency, the military high command appears to
remain loyal to Maduro. Many military leaders have
enriched themselves through corruption, drug trafficking,
and other illicit industries. Some military leaders may fear
that they could face prosecution for human rights abuses
under a new government, even though the opposition has
proposed amnesty for those who join their side.
Human Rights Concerns
Human rights abuses have increased as security forces and
civilian militias have violently quashed protests and
detained and abused those suspected of dissent. In 2017,
security forces committed serious human rights violations
during clashes with protesters that left more than 130 killed
and thousands injured. The regime has arrested and tortured
many of those it perceives as threats, including military
officers and opposition politicians. It has arrested Guaid6's
chief of staff and barred Guaid6 from seeking office for 15
years. Analysts predict increasing repression as Maduro has
called for L6pez and other opposition leaders' arrest. Some
fear Guaid6 could also face arrest or exile.
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