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Defense Primer: Emerging Technologies


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February 12, 2019


Senior U.S. defense and intelligence officials have
identified a number of emerging technologies that could
have a disruptive impact on U.S. national security in the
years to come. These technologies include
*  artificial intelligence,
*  lethal autonomous weapons,
*  hypersonic weapons,
*  directed-energy weapons,
*  biotechnology, and
*  quantum  technology.
As these technologies continue to mature, they could hold
significant implications for congressional oversight, U.S.
defense authorizations and appropriations, military concepts
of operations, and the future of war.

Artificial Intelligence
Artificial intelligence (AI) refers to a computer system
capable of human-level cognition. AI is currently being
incorporated into a number of military applications,
including intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance;
logistics; defensive cyber operations; command and control;
and semi-autonomous  and autonomous vehicles. As it
develops, AI could enable new concepts of operations, such
as swarming (i.e., cooperative behavior in which
uninhabited vehicles autonomously coordinate to achieve a
task), that could present both challenges and opportunities
for the U.S. military.

Recent news reports and analyses have highlighted the role
of AI in enabling increasingly realistic photo, audio, and
video digital forgeries, popularly known as deep fakes.
Adversaries could potentially deploy this AI capability as
part of their information operations in a gray zone
conflict. Deep fake technology could be used against the
United States and its allies to generate false news reports,
influence public discourse, erode public trust, and attempt
to blackmail diplomats. Some have suggested that AI could
be used to create full digital patterns-of-life, in which an
individual's digital footprint is mapped against other
personal information, such as spending habits and job
history, to create comprehensive behavioral profiles of
servicemembers, suspected intelligence officers,
government  officials, and private citizens. Similar to deep
fakes, this information could, in turn, be used for targeted
influence operations or blackmail.

To coordinate defense-wide AI efforts, the Pentagon
established the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center (JAIC,
pronounced jake) in June 2018 under the Department of
Defense's (DOD's) Chief Information Officer. In addition,
the FY2019 National Defense Authorization Act (P.L. 115-


232, §1051) established a National Security Commission on
Artificial Intelligence to assess U.S. competitiveness in AI
and offer recommendations to Congress.

Lethal Autonomous Weapons
Lethal Autonomous  Weapon  Systems (LAWS)   are a class
of weapon systems capable of independently identifying a
target and employing an onboard weapon system to engage
and destroy the target with no human interaction. LAWS
require computer algorithms and sensor suites to classify an
object as hostile, make an engagement decision, and guide a
weapon  to the target. This capability would enable the
system to operate in communications-degraded or -denied
environments where traditional systems may not be able to
operate.

LAWS   do not yet exist, and some senior military and
defense leaders have expressed concerns about the ethics of
ever fielding such systems. For example, in 2017 testimony
before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Vice
Chairman  of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Paul Selva
stated, I do not think it is reasonable for us to put robots in
charge of whether or not we take a human life. Currently,
there are no domestic or international legal prohibitions on
the development of LAWS;  however, an international group
of government experts has begun to discuss the issue.
Approximately 25 countries have called for a preemptive
ban on the systems due to ethical considerations, while
others have called for formal regulation. DOD Directive
3000.09 establishes department guidelines for the
development and fielding of LAWS to ensure that they
comply with the law of war, applicable treaties, weapon
system safety rules, and applicable rules of engagement.

Hypersonic   Weapons
Hypersonic weapons-which fly   at speeds of at least Mach
5-do  not yet exist, but they are in development in a
number  of countries. There are two categories of
hypersonic weapons:

*  Hypersonic  glide vehicles (HGV) are launched from a
   rocket before gliding to a target.

*  Hypersonic  cruise missiles (HCM) are powered by
   high-speed engines throughout the duration of their
   flight.

In contrast to ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons do not
follow a ballistic trajectory and can maneuver en route to
their destination, making defense against them difficult.
Currently, no such defense against hypersonic weapons
exists, and experts disagree on the affordability,
technological feasibility, and utility of hypersonic missile
defense options. These options could include interceptor


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