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1 1 (February 4, 2019)

handle is hein.crs/govycq0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Updated February 4, 2019 U.S. Withdrawal from the INF Treaty: What's Next? U.S. Withdrawal On February 2, 2019, the United States suspended its participation in the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and notified Russia of its intent to withdraw from the treaty. Under Article XV of the treaty, the withdrawal will take effect in six months. The Trump Administration has stated that this is in response to Russia's deployment of an INF-range ground-launched cruise missile, which violated the treaty's ban on missiles with a range between 500 and 5,500 kilometers (see CRS Report R43832, Russian Compliance with the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty: Background and Issues for Congress). President Trump first indicated that the United States would withdraw from INF on October 20, 2018. He not only cited Russia's violation, but also argued that the United States is at a disadvantage with respect to China because the latter is not bound by the treaty's limits. On December 4, 2018, after a meeting of NATO's foreign ministers, Secretary of State Pompeo declared that Russia was in material breach of the treaty and announced that the United States would suspend its obligations, effective in 60 days, unless Russia returns to full and verifiable compliance. This 60-day period ended on February 2, 2019. U.S. Military Options The United States first assessed in 2014 that Russia was in violation of its obligations under the INF Treaty. It determined that Russia had developed an intermediate- range ground-launched cruise missile, now known as the 9M729. At the time, the Pentagon initiated a study to evaluate whether the United States needed new military capabilities to offset any advantage Russia might acquire by deploying a ground-launched cruise missile of INF range (between 500 and 5,500 kilometers). While the results of the study were not made public, Brian McKeon, then the Principal Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, noted that the United States could respond by deploying new defenses against cruise missiles, developing and possibly deploying new intermediate-range missiles, and deploying other military capabilities to counter the new Russian capabilities. While generally supportive of diplomatic efforts to bring Russia back into compliance with INF, Congress also supported the development of a military response. The FY2015 National Defense Authorization Act (P.L. 113-29, § 1651) and FY2016 National Defense Authorization Act (P.L. 114-92, § 1243) called on the Pentagon to study and plan for the development of possible military options. The FY2018 National Defense Authorization Act (P.L. 115-91, § 1243) authorized funding for research into defenses, counterforce capabilities, and countervailing capabilities and mandated that DOD begin a program of record to develop a new U.S. ground-launched cruise missile. Some Members, have, however, criticized the decision to withdraw from the treaty and proposed legislation that would limit the production and deployment of new systems. Some analysts argue that the United States does not have to deploy new land-based missiles either to respond to Russia's new cruise missile or to address challenges from China. They note that the United States could expand its deployments of sea-based or air-delivered weapons that are not limited by the INF Treaty. Nevertheless, press reports indicate that the Pentagon has initiated research into a new ground-launched cruise missile. In a briefing on February 1, 2019, a senior U.S. government official noted that the United States does not plan to deploy any INF-range systems immediately, as it has not developed such systems while the treaty was in force. The official also noted that the United States is considering only conventional options at this time and does not plan to develop new INF-range land-based nuclear-armed missiles. The United States could pursue a number of INF-range programs and technologies that could add potentially valuable capabilities. For example, the Army is developing a new Precision Strike Missile with a range of 499 kilometers (consistent with the INF Treaty), but could extend it with little difficulty. The United States could also adapt existing sea-based Tomahawk cruise missiles for land-based delivery by developing new or adapting existing land-based launchers, such as the MK-41 launchers that are part of the U.S. missile defense system in Romania. (Russia has expressed concerns about these launchers precisely because it fears they could be adapted to launch Tomahawk cruise missiles.) It could also acquire a new intermediate- range ballistic missile and deploy it with either existing reentry vehicle technology (essentially replacing the Pershing II missiles destroyed under INF), or design a new trajectory-shaping reentry vehicle that could maneuver and glide to evade an adversary's missile defenses. A number of factors could affect the Pentagon's approach. Research, development and acquisition of new systems could be far more expensive than the adaptation of existing weapons. In addition, basing locations for a new ground- based missile might depend on allied approval. However, the United States could expand its deployments of sea- based or air-delivered missiles without requiring new bases. Issues in Asia Several analysts have argued that the INF Treaty places the United States at a disadvantage when addressing challenges from China because China has deployed thousands of land- https://crsreports.cong

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