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1 1 (November 30, 2023)

handle is hein.crs/govenpg0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Congressional Research Service Informing the Ieg~Iative debate s~n&~e 1914 Updated November 30, 2023 Central American Migration: Root Causes and U.S. Policy U.S. policy toward Central America has been a subject of significant debate and oversight over the past decade as Congress has sought to address the underlying factors driving migration from the region to the United States. Recent Trends According to a model developed at the University of Texas at Austin, an average of 407,000 people left the Northern Triangle of Central America (see Figure 1) annually from FY2018 to FY2021, with the majority bound for the United States. Flows have varied from year to year, with an estimated 692,000 people leaving the region in FY2019, followed by 113,000 in FY2020, and 521,000 in FY2021. Some surveys conducted in 2020 found many potential migrants had postponed their plans in the midst of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic but intended to undertake their journeys once governments lifted cross-border travel restrictions. Figure 1. Northern Triangle of Central America EL SALVAD Source: Map Resources. Adapted by CRS. In FY2023, U.S. Border Patrol encountered more than 447,000 foreign nationals from the Northern Triangle crossing the U.S. Southwest border between ports of entry, including 213,000 Guatemalans; 181,000 Hondurans; and 53,000 Salvadorans (see Figure 2). Of those encountered, the Border Patrol placed 309,000 into removal proceedings under Title 8 of the U.S. Code, where they could potentially seek asylum or related relief, and expelled 138,000 from the United States under Title 42 for public health reasons. About 40% of these enforcement encounters involved single adults, 39% involved individuals traveling with family members, and 21% involved unaccompanied minors. Root Causes Although motives vary by individual, difficult socioeconomic and security conditions-exacerbated by natural disasters and poor governance-appear to be the most important drivers of this mixed flow of economic migrants and asylum-seekers. Some research suggests such flows can become self-reinforcing over time, as families seek reunification and those who leave their communities serve as examples for, and share their experiences and resources with, those who remain behind. Figure 2. U.S. Border Patrol Encounters with Guatemalan, Honduran, and Salvadoran Nationals at the Southwest Border: FY201 I -FY2023 Enforcement encounters at Southwest border (1,OJs) 350 300 2W 200 1 50 100 50 0 2011 2V13 2019 2/t7 2039 2 2023 Sources: U.S. Border Patrol documents and data portal. Note: Figures for FY2020-FY2023 include Title 42 public health expulsions in addition to Title 8 apprehensions. Socioeconomic Conditions Land ownership and economic power in the Northern Triangle historically have been concentrated in the hands of a small group of elites, leaving a legacy of extreme inequality and widespread poverty. Although market- oriented economic reforms in the 1980s and 1990s produced greater macroeconomic stability, moderate economic gains have not translated into improved living conditions for many in the region. Analysts expect working-age populations in the Northern Triangle will continue to grow over the next two decades, since approximately 44% of Guatemalans, 42% of Hondurans, and 36% of Salvadorans are under the age of 20. Without improved job creation, those entering the workforce may have to choose between pursuing limited, precarious employment opportunities in the unregulated informal sector or seeking opportunity elsewhere. Natural Disasters Environmental shocks have aggravated the already difficult living conditions in the region. Some scientific studies indicate that extreme warm temperatures have increased in Central America since the mid-20th century, and portions of the region have struggled with a series of prolonged droughts since 2014. In addition to facing repeated crop losses, some rural communities have experienced declining employment opportunities in the coffee sector, which typically provides a crucial source of seasonal income for more than 1 million families in the Northern Triangle.

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