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1 1 (July 10, 2023)

handle is hein.crs/govemep0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Congressional Research Service Informring the legilative debate since 1914 Updated July 10, 2023 Central American Migration: Root Causes and U.S. Policy U.S. policy toward Central America has been a subject of significant debate and oversight over the past decade as Congress has sought to address the underlying factors driving migration from the region to the United States. Recent Trends According to a model developed at the University of Texas at Austin, an estimated 377,000 people, on average, left Northern Central America (see Figure 1) annually from FY2018 to FY2021, with the majority bound for the United States. Flows have varied from year to year, with an estimated 651,000 people leaving the region in FY2019, followed by 92,000 in FY2020, and 487,000 in FY2021. Surveys conducted in 2020 found many potential migrants had postponed their plans in the midst of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic but intended to undertake their journeys once governments lifted cross- border travel restrictions. Figure 1. Northern Central America GUATEMA EL SA! Source: Map Resources. Adapted by CRS. In FY2022, U.S. Border Patrol encountered nearly 521,000 foreign nationals from Northern Central America at the U.S. Southwest border, including 199,000 Hondurans, 228,000 Guatemalans, and 93,000 Salvadorans (see Figure 2). The Border Patrol apprehended 177,000 of those individuals under Title 8 of the U.S. Code (immigration) and expelled nearly 344,000 under Title 42 of the U.S. Code (public health). According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the use of Title 42 corresponded with an increase in recidivism, with repeat encounters accounting for 26.5% of total encounters in FY2020 and FY2021, up from an average of 11.8% in FY2015-FY2019. Of those encountered from Northern Central America in FY2022, about 22% were unaccompanied minors, 24% were traveling with family members, and 54% were single adults. Root Causes Although motives vary by individual, difficult socioeconomic and security conditions-exacerbated by natural disasters and poor governance-appear to be the most important drivers of this mixed flow of economic migrants and asylum-seekers. Research suggests such flows can become self-reinforcing over time, as families seek reunification and those who leave their communities serve as examples for, and share their experiences and resources with, those who remain behind. Figure 2. U.S. Border Patrol Apprehensions and Expulsions of Guatemalan, Honduran, and Salvadoran Nationals at the Southwest Border: FY20 I I -FY2022 Migrants encountered at Southwest border (1,OOs) -Guateraans --Hodras - adcrans 350 300 250 2001 10 2011 2013 2015 2017 2Q0 9 202I Source: U.S. Border Patrol data. Note: Figures for FY2020-FY2022, marked in dashed lines, include Title 42 public health expulsions in addition to Title 8 apprehensions and are not strictly comparable to prior years. Socioeconomic Conditions Land ownership and economic power in Northern Central America historically have been concentrated in the hands of a small group of elites, leaving a legacy of extreme inequality and widespread poverty. Although market- oriented economic reforms in the 1980s and 1990s produced greater macroeconomic stability, moderate economic gains have not translated into improved living conditions for many in the region. Analysts expect working-age populations in Northern Central America will continue to grow over the next two decades, since approximately 44% of Guatemalans, 40% of Hondurans, and 35% of Salvadorans are under the age of 20. Without improved job creation, new workers may have to choose between pursuing limited, precarious employment opportunities in the unregulated informal sector or seeking opportunity elsewhere. Natural Disasters Environmental shocks have aggravated the already difficult living conditions in the region. Some scientific studies indicate that Central America has become significantly hotter and dryer in recent decades, and portions of the region have struggled with a series of prolonged droughts since 2014. In addition to facing repeated crop losses, some

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