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Venezuela: Political Crisis and U.S. Policy

Venezuela, under the authoritarian rule of Nicolas Maduro,
remains in a deep economic and humanitarian crisis
worsened by the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
pandemic. Maduro has consolidated power over all of
Venezuela's institutions since his 2013 election after the
death of President Hugo Chavez (1999-2013). Maduro's
United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) took control of
the National Assembly after flawed parliamentary elections
in December 2020; the PSUV and allies also won 19 of 23
gubernatorial races in November 2021 state-level elections.
Maduro has quashed dissent and resisted U.S. and
international pressure to step down since his reelection in a
2018 presidential vote widely condemned as fraudulent.
Domestic and international support for opposition leader
Juan Guaid6, the former National Assembly president once
regarded as interim president by nearly 60 other countries,
has dissipated. The Biden Administration continues to
recognize Guaid6's government, partially to prevent
Venezuelan assets abroad from coming under Maduro's
control. Administration officials nevertheless met with
Maduro in March and June 2022, reportedly to discuss U.S.
citizens illegally detained in Venezuela, restarting stalled
negotiations with the opposition, and energy issues.
Political Situation
Maduro has used security forces, buoyed by corrupt courts,
to quash dissent. His government has rewarded allies,
particularly in the security forces, by allowing them to earn
income from illegal gold mining, drug trafficking, and other
illicit activities. Those forces have detained and abused
Maduro's opponents, including military officers, opposition
politicians, and civic leaders. As of August 24, 2022, the
government had imprisoned 244 political prisoners,
according to Foro Penal, a Venezuelan human rights group.
The U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human
Rights has documented, and the International Criminal
Court is investigating, extrajudicial killings and other grave
crimes committed by Venezuela's security forces.
The Venezuelan opposition has been weak and divided,
with many of its leaders in exile. Guaid6 challenged
Maduro's authority in 2019, but Guaid6's support has since
faded. After Norway-led negotiations stalled in mid-2019,
the Maduro government persecuted Guaid6's supporters. In
April 2021, Guaid6 called on opposition parties, labor and
civic groups, and business leaders to form a Unity Platform
to negotiate with Maduro officials. The Unity Platform
seeks better human rights, humanitarian, and electoral
conditions for the 2024 presidential elections; Maduro's
team seeks relief from U.S. sanctions and international
recognition. Mediated by Norway, the negotiations began in
Mexico in September 2021, but Maduro suspended them
after the United States extradited a top ally, Alex Saab,
from Cape Verde to stand trial for money laundering.

Updated September 1, 2022

After the March 2022 meeting with U.S. officials, Maduro
released two unjustly imprisoned Americans and pledged to
restart negotiations but has not done so. Even if
negotiations restart, it is unclear whether Maduro will make
significant concessions without U.S. sanctions relief.
Economic and Humanitarian Crisis
By most accounts, Maduro's government has mismanaged
the economy and engaged in massive corruption,
exacerbating the effects of a decline in oil production.
Between 2014 and 2021, Venezuela's economy contracted
by 80%, according to estimates by the International
Monetary Fund (IMF). According to a February 2021
Government Accountability Office report, sanctions
imposed by the United States in response to Maduro's
authoritarian actions, particularly sanctions targeting
Venezuela's oil industry, contributed to the economic crisis.
Since 2021, hyperinflation has abated and higher oil prices
driven by Russia's invasion of Ukraine appear to be driving
a nascent economic recovery.
Nevertheless, shortages in food and medicine, declines in
purchasing power, and a collapse of social services have
created a humanitarian crisis. According to the 2022 U.N.
Global Humanitarian Overview, some 7 million
Venezuelans are in need of humanitarian assistance. Health
indicators, particularly infant and maternal mortality rates,
have worsened. Violent clashes between illegally armed
groups along the Venezuela-Colombia border have
complicated humanitarian relief efforts in that region.
According to data from Johns Hopkins University (JHU),
Venezuela reported 5,796 deaths from COVID-19 (as of
late August 2022), but experts maintain the actual number
is much higher. The pandemic has strained Venezuela's
hollowed-out health system. According to JHU, 50.2% of
Venezuelans were fully vaccinated as of August 2022.
Venezuela has used Russian and Cuban vaccines and has
received Chinese vaccines both bilaterally and through the
COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX) Facility.
As of August 2022, U.N. agencies estimated 6.8 million
Venezuelans had left the country (with 26.9 million
remaining). Some 5.8 million of these migrants fled to other
Latin American and Caribbean countries. Migrants have
faced obstacles keeping jobs and accessing health care
during the pandemic; they are vulnerable to human
trafficking and other abuses. In 2021, Colombia and Peru
began granting temporary protected status to Venezuelans.
International Response
The international community is divided on policies toward
Venezuela. The United States has encouraged other
countries to sanction Maduro officials, hold the Maduro
government responsible for human rights abuses, and

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