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1 1 (July 15, 2022)

handle is hein.crs/goveilz0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Congressional Research Service SInformingj Ih egislative d bate sne 1914 Iraq and U.S. Policy Updated July 15, 2022 Sadrist Resignations Recast Government Formation Process In June 2022, Shia cleric Muqtada al Sadr directed his supporters to withdraw from the Council of Representatives (COR, Iraq's unicameral legislature), recasting the political dynamics of the country's long delayed government formation process. Iraq held a national election in October 2021 for the 329 members of the COR, the largest bloc of whom the constitution tasks with nominating a president and designating a new prime minister. Negotiations among Iraqi political groups since the election to identify the new COR's largest bloc became deadlocked. Sadr and his supporters had won the most seats (73) in the October 2021 election and had proposed forming a national majority government in cooperation the Taqaddum (Progress) movement of COR Speaker Mohammed al Halbousi (37 seats), the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) (31 seats), and others. Sadr's Shia Arab rivals in the Coordination Framework (CF) bloc, including former prime minister Nouri al Maliki and Hadi al Ameri of the pro-Iran Fatah (Conquest) coalition, insisted on forming an inclusive government according to the informal rules of the prevailing political system, which provide for nominally proportional power sharing but remain patronage-based and can facilitate corruption. Sadr had sought to exclude Maliki from the new government, and Sadr has portrayed his supporters' withdrawal as a refusal to participate in government with unspecified corrupt parties. COR leaders have sworn in new members to replace the resigned Sadrists, with independents and Shia parties gaining seats as a result. The Sadrists' exit leaves their CF rivals and the CF's coalition partners as the COR's apparent largest bloc. Sadr has positioned his movement to act in opposition to the next government. A CF-led government may revisit electoral reforms that benefitted Sadrists and independents in the 2021 election. For the United States, the next government may be more likely to reflect the influence of some pro-Iran groups, but Iraqi observers do not expect the incoming administration to rescind Iraq's sovereign invitation for U.S. military advisors to remain in the country. A consensus-based coalition government could lower the immediate risk of political violence among rival blocs, but also may make systemic reforms less likely. In the months ahead, unresolved popular demands and growing economic and environmental strains could reignite protests, including in the federally recognized Kurdistan region. In assessing the government that emerges in Iraq, Congress and the Biden Administration may weigh the benefits of continued security cooperation and other bilateral ties against risks to Iraq's stability posed by the persistence of patronage politics, corruption, oil dependence, and armed non-state actors. Ch allenges Await New Governmnent Prime Minister Mustafa al Kadhimi remains as a caretaker, but observers do not expect he will serve a second term. His term began in May 2020, after months of political deadlock following his predecessor's protestor-demanded resignation in late 2019. Negotiations leading to Kadhimi's nomination occurred during a period of escalating U.S.-Iran tensions in Iraq. Attacks by Iran-backed groups targeting U.S. and Coalition forces-and their Iraqi hosts-have tested Prime Minister Al Kadhimi throughout his tenure and continue. The United States has condemned a series of indirect fire and infrastructure attacks in the Kurdistan region, including a March 2022 missile attack from Iran. Figure I.Iraa Sources: CRS, using ESRI and U.S. State Department data. Iraqi and coalition forces ended the Islamic State (IS, aka ISIS/SIL) group's control of territory in Iraq in 2017, creating space for Iraqis to seek more accountable governance, improved service delivery, action against corruption, and greater economic opportunity. These demands drove mass protests in 2019 and 2020 that subsided as the Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic spread, but resurged in May 2021 with demonstrators insisting that the government identify and prosecute suspects in a series of assassinations and kidnappings of protest leaders, activists, and others. The state's use of force to contain and disperse protests, the impunity surrounding violence against activists, and attacks against foreign and Iraqi security forces have intensified public scrutiny of the government's ability to act against armed groups operating outside state control.

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