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1 1 (November 9, 2021)

handle is hein.crs/govehhk0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Updated November 9, 2021 Iraq and U.S. Policy Vo nce Shadows PostEction T als Iraq held a national election onOctober 10,2021, with voters selecting 329members for the unicameral legislature, the Council of Representatives (COR). The COR elects Iraq's president and approves the prime minister's programand cabinet nominees. The election results will inform negotiations among political groups to identify the new COR's 'largest bloc', which nominates the prime minister. The largest bloc may or may not include the coalition orparty that won the most COR seats. Past government formation talks have taken months to resolve. Election observers judged that officials administered the election fairly, amid low turnout and some boycotts. Recounts have notresulted in major changes. Some parties nevertheless have continued to question the outcome, with some Iran-aligned groups engaging in confrontational protests and intimating that violence could result if Iraq's next government excludes them. Unnamed Iraqiofficials attributedaNovember2021 drone attackontheprime minister's residence to Iran-aligned Iraqi militia, but militia leaders and Iranianofficials have denied any involvement. Condemning the terrorist attack against Prime Minister Al Khadimi, President Biden said,The United States stands firmly with the government and people of Iraq as they strive touphold Iraq's sovereignty and independence. Iraq adopted a new electoral law for the October election based on individual candidacy andlocaldistricts, creating newpolitical opportunities for independents and members of the protest movement that brought down the government formed after the 2018 election. Those groups gained COR seats in 2021, but fewer than established parties. Shia leader Muqtada alSadr's supporters won fewer votes than in 2018 but adapted their candidacy approach to the new systemand won the most seats (73). The Taqaddum(Progress) movement of COR Speaker Mohammed alHalbousi won 38 seats, followed by independents (37), former prime ministerNourial Maliki's State of Law bloc (35), and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) (33). The pro-Iran Fatah (Conquest) bloc attracted support comparable to Sadr's, but won 16 seats, les s thanhalf of Fatah's total(48) in 2018. For the United States, the electionresult could reduce the formal influence of Iran-aligned groups who seekto revise or rescind plans for a continued U.S. military advisory presence in Iraq after December 31, 2021. However, Iraqi analysts expect a compromise coalition governmentto emerge that includes or reflects the interests of Iran-backed groups alongside their more electorally successfulrivals. Such a government could lower the risk of political violence, but also may make systemic reforms less likely. In assessing the government that emerges in Iraq, U.S. officials may weigh the benefits of continued security cooperation and other bilateralties againstrisks to Iraq's stability posed by the persistenceofpatronagepolitics, corruption, oil dependence, and armed non-state actors. Challenges Await N ew Governmnent Prime Minister Mustafa alKadhimihas led the government since May 2020, after months of political deadlock following his predecessor's protestor-demanded resignation in late 2019. Extensive negotiations leading to Kadhimi's nomnation occurred during a period of escalating U.S.-Iran tensions in Iraq. Attacks byIran-backed groups targeting U.S. and Coalition forces-and their Iraqi hosts-have tested Prime Minister AlKadhimithroughouthis tenure. Figure i.Iraq Sources: CRS, using ESRI and U.S. State Department data. The Islamic State (IS, aka ISIS/ISIL) group's controlof territory in Iraq ended in 2017, creating space for Iraqis to seekmore accountable governance, improved service delivery, an end to corruption, and greater economic opportunity. These demands drove mas s protests in 2019 and 2020 that subsided as the Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic spread, butresurged in May 2021 with demonstrators insisting that the government identify and prosecute suspects in a series of assassinations and kidnappings of protest leaders, activists, and others. The state's use offorce to contain and disperse protests and the impunity surrounding violence against activists has intensified public scrutiny of the Prime Minister's credibility and his government's ability to act againstarmed groups operating outside state control. Continued dependence on oilrevenues and expansive state liabilities left Iraq vulnerable to fmancial collapsein 2020, as the systemic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated underlying economic and fiscal challenges. A precipitous drop in global oilprices slashed state revenues jolla) R~se~

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