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1 1 (January 20, 2022)

handle is hein.crs/govehhi0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Iraq and U.S. Policy Updated January 20, 2022 Violence Shadows Post-Election Talks Iraq held a national election on October 10, 2021, with voters selecting 329 members for the unicameral legislature, the Council of Representatives (COR). The COR elects Iraq's president and approves the prime minister's program and cabinet nominees. The election results are informing negotiations among political groups to identify the new COR's largest bloc, which nominates the prime minister. The largest bloc may or may not include the coalition or party that won the most COR seats. Past government formation talks have taken months to resolve. Election observers judged that officials administered the election fairly, amid low turnout and some boycotts. Recounts did not result in major changes and courts ruled against some parties' claims of electoral malfeasance. Some Iran-aligned groups engaged in confrontational protests and have intimated that violence could result if Iraq's next government excludes them. Unnamed Iraqi officials attributed a November 2021 drone attack on the prime minister's residence to Iran-aligned Iraqi militia, but militia leaders and Iranian officials have denied any involvement. Condemning the terrorist attack against Prime Minister Al Khadimi, President Biden said, The United States stands firmly with the government and people of Iraq as they strive to uphold Iraq's sovereignty and independence. Iraq adopted a new electoral law for the October election based on individual candidacy and local districts, creating new political opportunities for independents and members of the protest movement that brought down the government formed after the 2018 election. Shia leader Muqtada al Sadr's supporters won fewer votes than in 2018 but adapted their candidacy approach to the new system and won the most seats (73). Independents and grassroots candidates won 43 seats, followed by the Taqaddum (Progress) movement of COR Speaker Mohammed al Halbousi (37), former prime minister Nouri al Maliki's State of Law bloc (33), and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) (31). The pro-Iran Fatah (Conquest) bloc drew half as many votes as Sadr's bloc, but won just 17 seats, down from 48 in 2018. It remains to be seen whether the election result and government formation talks will reduce the formal influence of Iran-aligned groups who seek to revise or rescind Iraq's invitation to the U.S. military to retain an advisory presence in Iraq. Iraqi analysts expect a compromise coalition government to emerge that includes or reflects the interests of Iran-backed groups alongside their more electorally successful rivals. Such a government could lower the risk of political violence, but also may make systemic reforms less likely. In assessing the government that emerges in Iraq, U.S. officials may weigh the benefits of continued security cooperation and other bilateral ties against risks to Iraq's stability posed by the persistence of patronage politics, corruption, oil dependence, and armed non-state actors. Challenges Awa New Government Prime Minister Mustafa al Kadhimi has led the government since May 2020, after months of political deadlock following his predecessor's protestor-demanded resignation in late 2019. Negotiations leading to Kadhimi's nomination occurred during a period of escalating U.S.-Iran tensions in Iraq. Attacks by Iran-backed groups targeting U.S. and Coalition forces-and their Iraqi hosts-continue and have tested Prime Minister Al Kadhimi throughout his tenure. Figure I. Iraq Sources: CRS, using ESRI and U.S. State Department data. The Islamic State (IS, aka ISIS/ISIL) group's control of territory in Iraq ended in 2017, creating space for Iraqis to seek more accountable governance, improved service delivery, an end to corruption, and greater economic opportunity. These demands drove mass protests in 2019 and 2020 that subsided as the Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic spread, but resurged in May 2021 with demonstrators insisting that the government identify and prosecute suspects in a series of assassinations and kidnappings of protest leaders, activists, and others. The state's use of force to contain and disperse protests and the impunity surrounding violence against activists has intensified public scrutiny of the government's ability to act against armed groups operating outside state control. Continued dependence on oil revenues and expansive state liabilities left Iraq vulnerable to financial collapse in 2020, as the systemic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated underlying economic and fiscal challenges. A precipitous drop in global oil prices slashed state revenues through mid-2020, but price increases since have created

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