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1 1 (May 18, 2022)

handle is hein.crs/govehhh0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Iraq and U.S. Policy Government Formation Impasse Persists Iraq held a national election on October 10, 2021, with voters selecting 329 members for the unicameral legislature, the Council of Representatives (COR). The COR elects Iraq's president and approves the prime minister's program and cabinet nominees. Negotiations among Iraqi political groups since the election have sought to identify the new COR's largest bloc, which under Iraq's constitution nominates the president who would then designate a prime minister tasked with proposing a cabinet. This ruling party or coalition may or may not include the coalition or party that actually won the most COR seats. An impasse between competing blocs has delayed the COR's selection of the president since January 2022. Iraq adopted a new electoral law for the 2021 election based on individual candidacy and local districts, creating new political opportunities for independents and members of the protest movement that brought down the government formed after the 2018 election. Independents and grassroots candidates won 43 seats in the 2021 election, but established political forces predominate. Newcomers have faced unique pressures during the post-election talks, and several have aligned since with parties or coalitions. Intra-Shia rivalries have defined post-election politics. Supporters of Shia cleric Muqtada Al Sadr won 73 of the 329 seats, the most by a single movement. Sadr, long a critic of the United States and a rival of other Iraqi Shia leaders with closer ties to Iran, has called for the formation of a government of national majority that is neither Eastern nor Western. He has been joined by the Taqaddum (Progress) movement of COR Speaker Mohammed al Halbousi (37 seats) and other Sunnis, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) (31 seats), and others. Through April, their bloc had attempted unsuccessfully to achieve a required two-thirds quorum for the selection of the president. Former prime minister Nouri al Maliki's State of Law bloc (33 seats), the pro-Iran Fatah (Conquest) coalition (17 seats), and other mostly Shia parties anchor the rival bloc to Sadr's. They seek the formation of a Shia-led coalition government that will preserve their influence and interests under the prevailing elite consensus-based system. It remains to be seen whether the election result and formation talks will reduce the formal influence of Iran- aligned groups who seek to revise or rescind Iraq's invitation to U.S. military advisors to remain in Iraq. A compromise coalition government could emerge that includes or reflects the interests of Iran-backed groups alongside their rivals. Such a government could lower the risk of political violence, but also may make systemic reforms less likely. In assessing the government that emerges in Iraq, Congress and the Biden Administration may weigh the benefits of continued security cooperation and other bilateral ties ~rch Servc~ Updated May 18, 2022 against risks to Iraq's stability posed by the persistence of patronage politics, corruption, oil dependence, and armed non-state actors. Challenges Await New Government Prime Minister Mustafa al Kadhimi remains as a caretaker, but observers do not expect he will serve a second term. His term began in May 2020, after months of political deadlock following his predecessor's protestor-demanded resignation in late 2019. Negotiations leading to Kadhimi's nomination occurred during a period of escalating U.S.-Iran tensions in Iraq. Attacks by Iran-backed groups targeting U.S. and Coalition forces-and their Iraqi hosts-continue and have tested Prime Minister Al Kadhimi throughout his tenure. Figure I. Iraa Sources: CRS, using ESRI and U.S. State Department data. The Islamic State (IS, aka ISIS/ISIL) group's control of territory in Iraq ended in 2017, creating space for Iraqis to seek more accountable governance, improved service delivery, an end to corruption, and greater economic opportunity. These demands drove mass protests in 2019 and 2020 that subsided as the Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic spread, but resurged in May 2021 with demonstrators insisting that the government identify and prosecute suspects in a series of assassinations and kidnappings of protest leaders, activists, and others. The state's use of force to contain and disperse protests and the impunity surrounding violence against activists has intensified public scrutiny of the government's ability to act against armed groups operating outside state control. Continued dependence on oil revenues and expansive state liabilities left Iraq vulnerable to financial collapse in 2020, as the systemic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated underlying economic and fiscal challenges. Oil

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