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Libya and U.S. Policy

Ten years after the start of a 2011 uprising that toppled
long-time authoritarian leader Muammar al Qadhafi, Libya
has yet to make a transition to stable governing
arrangements. Elections and diplomacy have produced a
series ofinterimgovernments (Figure 1),butmilitias, local
leaders, and coalitions ofnationalfigures backed by
competing foreignpatrons have remained the most
powerful arbiters of public affairs.
Conflictre-erupted in Libya in April2019, when a coalition
of armed groups led by Qadhafi-era military defector
Khalifa Haftar known as the Liby an National Army
movement (LNA, in Arabic: Libyan Arab Armed Forces,
LAAF) leveraged support fromRus sia, the United Arab
Emirates (UAE), and Egypt to attempt to seize the capital,
Tripoli, from an interim Government of National Accord
(GNA) and localmilitias. With Turkish military support,
the GNA and western Libyan militias forced the LNA to
withdraw. Libya has remained divided since, with foreign
forces remaining present and the main opposing coalitions
separatedby a line ofcontrol west of Sirte (Figure 1).
During 2020, multilateral diplomatic initiatives helped
achieve a ceasefire, and in April2021, the United Nations
(U.N.) Security Council endorsed plans to deploy civilian
ceasefire monitoring personnel at Libyans' request.
Delegates to a U.N.-convened Libyan Political Dialogue
Forumand members of Libya's HouseofRepresentatives
(HOW, interim parliament last elected in 2014) approved an
interim executive authority and interimGovernment of
National Unity (GNU) to replace the GNA in March 2021.
The U.N. Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) is
facilitating discussions among LPDF members, the HOR,
and the High Council of State (HCS, an advisory
representative body) to establish a constitutional basis and
law for parliamentary and presidential elections planned for
December 24, 2021. U.S. officials continue to callforan
end to foreign interference in Libya and for holding the
elections as scheduled.
.. i                 t
U.N. Endorses Ceasefire Monitordng
In October 2020, U.N.-backed talks among members of a
Joint Military Commission (JMC, or5+5 because ofits
equalmake-up of GNA/LNA delegates) established a
temporary ceasefire. The agreement called for the departure
of mercenaries and foreign fighters along with the
suspension of foreign training andthe departure of trainers.
The ceasefire has held through August 2021, although
foreign forces have not departed. In April2021, the U.N.
Security Council endorsed Resolution 2570, approving the
scalable and incremental deployment' ofceasefire
monitors and strongly urging member states torespectand
support the full implementation of the ceasefire agreement,
including through the withdrawal of all foreign forces and
mercenaries fromLibya without delay. Preparations for
the monitoring mis sion are ongoing.

In July 2021, UNSMIL head Jin Kubis observed that, the
situation in Libya is becoming more difficult,
confrontational and tense. Institutional, political and
individualinterests standin the way of agreeing on the
necessary legal framework for holding the elections on 24
December, as agreed in the LPDFroad map, endorsed by
the Security Council. He further warned that, Theunity
of the Joint Military Commis sion and the implementation of
the agreement couldunravelif the politicalprocess remains
stalled, and said, The continued presence of foreign
forces, mercenaries and foreign fighters also threatens the
ceasefire. In August 2021, he said, time is running out.

Figure I. Libya: Areas of Influence

2011 Uprising topples Muammar al Qadhafi.
2012 Parliamentary elections. Transitional cabinet seated.
2014 Constitutional referendum and parliamentary elections.
Disputed results fuel conflict. U.S. diplomats depart.
2015 International mediation yields agreement to form
Government of National Accord (GNA).
2016 Parliament withholds endorsement of GNA  Islamic
State forces defeated in Sirte with U.S. military support.
2018 Libyan National Army consolidates control in east Libya.
2019 Libyan National Army launches offensive against Tripoli.
2020 U.N. supports ceasefire negotiations, selects Libyan
Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) members. LPDF agrees
to roadmap, plans December 2021 elections.
2021 LPDF selects Interim Executive Authority members.
HOR approves interim Government of National Unity
cabinet. U.N. Security Council endorses ceasefire
monitoring and date for December 2021 election.
Source: Prepared by CRS using media and social media reporting.

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