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1 1 (April 19, 2022)

handle is hein.crs/govegzn0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Congressional inforrning the l4egiati\ lesear h Service deate sice1914 Updated April 19, 2022 Terrorist Groups in Afghanistan Afghanistan's geography, complex ethnic composition, and history of conflict and instability have created space for numerous armed Islamist groups, some of which engage in transnational terrorist activity. This product outlines major terrorist groups present in Afghanistan that are affiliated and allied with Al Qaeda (AQ) and the Islamic State (IS, also known as ISIS, ISIL, or by the Arabic acronym Da 'esh), and relations between these groups and other actors, most notably the Taliban. These dynamics may inform assessments of U.S. policy in Afghanistan in light of the Taliban's renewed control of the country. The Taliban interact with the groups below in varying ways that may affect U.S. interests. Observers differ on how Taliban rule might empower or undermine these terrorist groups or Taliban behavior toward them. U.S. public assessments of the threats these groups pose to U.S. interests, including to the U.S. homeland, vary. President Joseph Biden and other U.S. officials have stated that the United States will maintain over-the-horizon capabilities to address terrorist threats in Afghanistan. As of mid-March 2022, the United States has not carried out any such strikes since the U.S. military withdrawal was completed on August 30, 2021. Al Qaeda Core The top echelon or core AQ leadership was a primary target of post-2001 U.S. operations in Afghanistan. The core includes AQ leader Ayman al Zawahiri (who reportedly is ailing) and his deputies, an advisory council of about ten individuals, and members of various AQ committees such as military operations and finance. In September 2019, the White House announced that U.S. forces killed Hamza bin Laden, son of AQ founder Osama bin Laden and a rising leader in the group, in the Afghanistan/Pakistan region. Taliban-AQ links date back to the 1990s, when Bin Laden pledged allegiance to the Taliban, who in turn provided a safe haven to Al Qaeda as it planned the September 11, 2001, and other terrorist attacks. Those ties were reinforced by their shared battle against U.S.-led international forces in Afghanistan as well as through intermarriage and other personal bonds between members of the two groups. AQ sympathizers celebrated the Taliban's August 2021 takeover as a victory for global Islamism. Although most official assessments concur that AQ-Taliban ties remain close, they also indicate Al Qaeda is maintaining strategic silence (per U.N. sanctions monitors) to not undermine Taliban efforts to obtain international legitimacy. Those assessments also agree that the Taliban in turn are likely to allow AQ figures to remain in Afghanistan so long as they do not threaten the United States or its allies. The February 2020 U.S.-Taliban accord committed the Taliban to preventing any group, including Al Qaeda, from using Afghan soil to threaten the security of the United States or its allies. The State Department reports some progress in Taliban counterterrorism commitments. U.S. defense officials assess as of March 2022 that Al Qaeda has the intention, but not the capability, to conduct external operations; they further assess that Al Qaeda could reconstitute that capability in one to two years in the absence of sustained counterterrorism pressure. Al Qaeda in the indian Subcontinent In September 2014, Zawahiri announced the creation of a formal, separate Al Qaeda affiliate in South Asia, Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS, designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, or FTO, in 2016). Because of the relative geographical proximity of AQIS and the AQ core, differentiating between the two is difficult, but some key distinctions exist. AQIS represents an attempt by AQ to establish a more durable presence in the region by enhancing links with local actors, prompted in part by the relocation of some AQ leaders (who are predominantly Arab) to Syria. Former AQIS leader Asim Umar, who was being sheltered by Taliban forces when he was killed in a joint U.S.-Afghan operation in Afghanistan in September 2019, was an Indian with roots in Pakistan and his successor Osama Mahmood is Pakistani. AQIS reportedly solidified its presence in Afghanistan by embedding its members in Taliban ranks and is estimated to have 200-400 fighters in the country. Figure I.Recent Terrorism-Related Developments Source: uraphic created by LKS. Islamic State-horasan Province (ISKP) The Islamic State announced the formation of its Afghan affiliate in January 2015. ISKP (also known as ISIS-K) was initially concentrated in eastern Afghanistan, particularly in Nangarhar province, which borders the region of Pakistan formerly known as the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). There, ISKP was mostly comprised of former

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