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1 1 (October 27, 2021)

handle is hein.crs/govegns0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Congressional Research Servic informing the Iegishative debate since 1914 Updated October 27, 2021 Central American Migration: Root Causes and U.S. Policy Recent Trends According to a model developed by academics at the University of Texas at Austin, an estimated 311,000 people, on average, left the Northern Triangle region of Central America (see Figure 1) annually from FY2014 to FY2020, with the majority bound for the United States. Flows have varied from year to year, with an estimated 709,000 people leaving the region in FY2019 and an estimated 139,000 people leaving the region in FY2020. Surveys conducted in 2020 found many potential migrants in the region had postponed their plans in the midst of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic but intended to undertake their journeys once governments lifted cross- border travel restrictions. Figure 1. Northern Triangle of Central America GELAT EALA Et. SALVAP Source: Map Resources. Adapted by CRS. In FY2021, U.S. Border Patrol encountered nearly 684,000 foreign nationals from the Northern Triangle at the U.S. Southwest border, including 309,000 Hondurans, 279,000 Guatemalans, and 96,000 Salvadorans (see Figure 2). The Border Patrol apprehended 287,000 of those individuals under Title 8 of the U.S. Code (immigration) and expelled nearly 397,000 under Title 42 of the U.S. Code (public health). Taken together, individuals from the Northern Triangle accounted for 41% of all Border Patrol encounters at the Southwest border, outnumbering Mexican nationals, who accounted for 37% of the total. Of those encountered from the Northern Triangle, about 17% were unaccompanied children, 39% were traveling with family members, and 45% were single adults. Root Causes Although motives vary by individual, difficult socioeconomic and security conditions-exacerbated by natural disasters and poor governance-appear to be the most important drivers of this mixed flow of economic migrants and asylum-seekers. Research suggests such flows can become self-reinforcing over time, as families seek reunification and those who leave their communities serve as examples for, and share their experiences and resources with, those who remain behind. Figure 2. U.S. Border Patrol Apprehensions and Expulsions of Guatemalan, Honduran, and Salvadoran Nationals at the Southwest Border: FY20 I I -FY2021 Migrants encountered at Southwest border (1,0s) ote-Guaternaljs -foro duraas e ale2doralt 350 300 250 200 150 2009 2011 2(1< 20½ 2i 39 2O21 Source: U.S. Border Patrol data. Note: Figures for FY2020 and FY2021 include Title 42 public health expulsions in addition to Title 8 apprehensions and are not strictly comparable to prior years. Socioeconoic Conditions Land ownership and economic power in the Northern Triangle historically have been concentrated in the hands of a small group of elites, leaving a legacy of extreme inequality and widespread poverty. Although market- oriented economic reforms in the 1980s and 1990s produced greater macroeconomic stability and facilitated the diversification of the region's once predominantly agricultural economies, those moderate economic gains have not translated into improved living conditions for many in the Northern Triangle. Analysts expect the working-age populations of all three Northern Triangle countries will continue to increase over the next two decades, since approximately 45% of Guatemalans, 42% of Hondurans, and 36% of Salvadorans are under the age of 20. Without improved job creation, new workers may be forced to choose between pursuing limited, precarious employment opportunities in the unregulated informal sector and seeking opportunity elsewhere. Natural Disasters Environmental shocks have aggravated the already difficult living conditions in the region. Some scientific studies indicate that Central America has become significantly hotter and dryer in recent decades, and portions of the region have struggled with a series of prolonged droughts since 2014. In addition to facing repeated crop losses, some rural communities have experienced declining employment opportunities in the coffee sector, which typically provides a crucial source of seasonal income for about 1.3 million

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