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1 1 (April 22, 2021)

handle is hein.crs/govedbp0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Updated April 22, 2021 Central American Migration: Root Causes and U.S. Policy Recent Trends According to a model developedby academics at the University of Texas at Austin, an estimated 311,000 people, on average, left the Northern Triangle region of Central America (see Figure 1) annually fromFY2014 to FY2020, with the majority bound for the United States. Flows have varied from year to year, however, with an estimated 709,000 people leaving the region in FY2019 followed by an estimated 139,000 people leaving theregion in FY2020. Surveys conducted in 2020 found that many potential migrants in the region hadpostponed theirplans in the midst of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic but intended to undertake their journeys once governments lifted cross-border travel restrictions. Figure I. Northern Triangle of Central America CSA GUATE EL F Source: Map Resources. Adapted by CRS. Anecdotalreports and recent data collected at the Southwest U.S. border suggest migrants are once again on the move. U.S. Customs and Border Protection personnel encountered (apprehended or expelled under a public health authority) more foreign nationals fromthe Northern Triangle through the first half ofFY2021 than they did in all of FY2020 (see Figure 2). Approximately 34,000 of the nearly 226,000 Guatemalans, Hondurans, and Salvadorans encountered at the border this fiscal yearhavebeen unaccompanied minors-a category of migrants that the Biden Administration has exempted fromimmediate public health expulsions. Root Causes Although motives vary by individual, difficult socioeconomic and security conditions-exacerbated by natural dis asters and poor governance-appear to be the most important drivers of this mixed flow of economic migrants and asylum-seekers. Research suggests that such flows can become self-reinforcing over time, as families seekreunification and those who leave their communities serve as examples for, and share their experiences and resources with, those who remain behind. https://crsreport Figure 2. U.S. Apprehensions and Expulsions of Guatemalan, Honduran, and Salvadoran Nationals at the Southwest Border: FY20 1 I -FY2021 Migrants encountered at Southwest border (1,000s --Guatemalans --Hon duras - ashadorans 300 250 200 150 1W 2CJ1I 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021* Source: U.S. Customs and Border Protection data. Notes:*FY202 Iincludessix months, from October 1,2020,through March 31,2021.FiguresforFY2020andFY2021 includeTitle42 public health expulsions in addition to Title 8 apprehensions and are not strictly comparable to prioryears. Socioeconomic Conditions Land ownership and economic power in the Northern Triangle historically have been concentrated in the hands of a small group of elites, leaving a legacy of extreme inequality and widespread poverty. Although market- oriented economic reforms in the 1980s and 1990s produced greater macroeconomic stability and facilitated the diversification of the region's oncepredominantly agricultural economies, those moderate economic gains have not translated into improvedliving conditions for many in the Northern Triangle. In areas such as thewestern highlands of Guatemala, residents continue to contend with high levels of malnutrition and low levels of education that limit their lifelong skill and earning capacities. Analysts expect the working -age populations of all three Northern Triangle countries will continue to increase over the next two decades, since approximately 45% of Guatemalans, 42% of Hondurans, and 36% of Salvadorans are under the age of 20. Without improvedjob creation, however, new workers may be forced to choose betweenpursuing limited, precarious employment opportunities in the unregulated informal sector or seeking opportunity elsewhere. Natural Disasters Environmental shocks have aggravated the already difficult living conditions in the region. Some scientific studies indicate that CentralAmerica has become significantly hotter anddryer in recentdecades, andportions ofthe region have struggledwith a series of prolonged droughts since 2014. In addition to facing repeated crop losses, some rural communities have experienced declining employment opportunities in the coffee sector, which typically provides .congress.gov

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