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Venezuela: Political Crisis and U.S. Policy


Venezuela remains in a deep crisis under the authoritarian
rule of Nicolas Maduro of the United SocialistParty of
Venezuela (PSUV). Maduro, narrowly elected in 2013 after
the death of President Hugo Chavez(1999-2013), began a
second termin January 2019 that is widely considered
illegitimate. Despite U.S. and international pressure to leave
office, Maduro remains firmly in power. His party now
controls a de facto National Assembly seated onJanuary5,
2021.

Since January 2019, the United States has recognized Juan
Guaidd, president of the democratically elected, opposition-
controlled National As sembly elected in December2015, as
interim president. Guaidd, once recognized as Venezuela's
leader by more than 55 countries, has beenlosing
international and Venezuelan domestic support. Although
the Biden Administration and many in Congress support
Guaidd, some are calling for a new strategy for Venezuela.

Political Situation
Maduro,  reelected in May 2018 in an election widely
deemed  to be fraudulent, has used the Venezuelan courts,
security forces, and electoral council to quash dissent.
Security forces have detained and abused Maduro's
opponents, including military officers and opposition
politicians. As of mid-January 2021, the government held
some 350 political prisoners. The U.N. Office of the High
Commissioner  for Human Rights documented thousands of
extrajudicial killings and other abuses committed by
security forces thatit described as crimes against humanity.
Electoral authorities convened December2020 legislative
elections boycottedby the opposition; plaguedby
irregularities; and rejected by the United States, the
European Union (EU), and most Latin American countries.

The Venezuelan opposition is weak and divided, with many
of its leaders in exile. Although Guaidd challenged
Maduro's  authority in 2019, his supporthas since faded
substantially. In 2019, two Guaid6-led efforts to encourage
security forces to abandon Maduro failed. After Norway -led
negotiations stalled in mid-2019, the Maduro government
increas edpersecution of Guaid6's supporters. Since March
2020, restrictions put in place to combatthe spread of the
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) have limited
Guaid6's ability to convene protests. Guaidd alsolost
support after reports emerged that he condoned a plan that
ended in a botchedraid against Maduro in May 2020.
Guaidd and other opposition legislators now face
prosecution by judicial authorities, who assert the
legislators no longer have immunity since their legislative
terms ended in January 2021.

Economic   and  Humanitarian   Crisis
By most accounts, Maduro's government has mismanaged
the economy and engaged in massive corruption,
exacerbating the effects of a decline in global oilprices and


Updated January 27, 2021


production on the country's economy. Madurohas
rewarded allies, including the military, with income
siphoned fromstate industries and illegal gold mining, drug
trafficking, and other illicit activities. The International
Monetary  Fund estimates the country's economy contracted
by 35%  in 2019 and inflation reached 9,585%. Economic
conditions deteriorated further in 2020 because of gasoline
shortages, COVID-19, and broadened U.S. sanctions.

Shortages in food and medicine, declines in purchasing
power, and a collapse of social services have created a
humanitarian crisis. According to a 2019-2020 household
survey, the percentageofVenezuelans living in poverty
increased to 96% in 2019 (80% in extreme poverty). A
February 2020 World Food Program(WFP)   assessment
estimated that 9 million Venezuelans were food insecure.
Maduro  continues to blockthe establishment of a WFP
programin the country, preferring to provide food aid
through aprogramtied to supportforhis government.
Health indicators, particularly infant and maternal mortality
rates, have worsened. Previously eradicated diseases such
as diphtheria and measles have returned and spread.

The governmentreported 1,148 deaths fromCOVID-19  (as
of January 25), but experts maintain the actual number is
much higher. The pandemic could decimate Venezuela's
hollowed-out health system. A June 2020 Maduro-Guaidd
agreement to address COVID-19 may be in jeopardy, with
the opposition alleging Maduro has not distributed
medicines apolitically andboth sides disputinghowto pay
for vaccines.

In December 2020, U.N. agencies estimated5.4 million
Venezuelans had left the country. Some 4.6 million of those
migrants fled to other Latin American and Caribbean
countries, especially Colombia. Migrants face obstacles
maintaining jobs and accessing health care, as neighboring
countries have implemented quarantines andborder
closures to counter COVID-19.

International  Response
The international community remains divided over how to
respond to the crisis in Venezuela. The United Kingdom
and some Western Hemisphere countries stillrecognize
Guaidd as interim president, although EU countries no
longer label him as such since January 5,2021. The United
States, EU, Canada, and 11 Western Hemisphere countries
that are parties to the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal
Assistance (Rio Treaty) have imposedtargetedsanctions
and travel bans on Maduro officials. The EU and mo s t
Western Hemisphere countries oppose military intervention
to oust Maduro. The EU and some Latin American
countries endorsed 2019 negotiations led by Norway, but
those efforts did not prove successful.

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