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C  o   g  e  s o   a   R e s  a r c  S e r v i c


Updated January 12, 2021


Diplomacy with North Korea: A Status Report


Overview
Since 2006, when the Democratic People's Republic of
Korea (DPRK,  North Korea's official name) first tested a
nuclear weapon, it has made significant advances in both its
nuclear and missile programs, raising the threat it poses to
the U.S. homeland and U.S. East Asian allies. In 2018,
President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim
Jong-un launched denuclearization talks that relied on
summits and communication  between the two leaders. Their
effort departed from the bottom-up approaches undertaken
by previous administrations. Trump and Kim exchanged
more than 25 letters and held three meetings: in Singapore
(June 2018); Hanoi (February 2019); and Panmunjom, on
the inter-Korean border (June 2019).

The Trump-Kim   personal diplomacy reduced U.S.-DPRK
hostility, which had flared in 2017 and raised alarm that
war could break out. The diplomacy also may have helped
preserve North Korea's self-imposed moratoria on nuclear
tests and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests.
Nevertheless, negotiations have stalled, and Pyongyang has
enhanced its military capabilities, resumed short-range
missile tests, rejected agreements it had reached in 2018
with South Korea, and expanded its efforts to evade
international sanctions. Meanwhile, many critics argue that
Trump's  moves have weakened  the U.S.-South Korea
alliance. President-elect Joe Biden has indicated that he will
seek a more traditional diplomatic approach toward North
Korea, emphasizing working-level talks, should
negotiations resume.

Status   of  U.SDPRK Negotiations
U.S.-DPRK   diplomacy stalled after the February 2019
Hanoi summit, which broke down  due to differences over
the scope and sequencing of DPRK denuclearization
measures required in exchange for sanctions relief. Since
the June 2019 Panmunjom  meeting, the United States and
North Korea have held one round of official talks, in
October 2019. U.S. officials say their North Korean
counterparts refused to engage in additional negotiations.
Under Trump  and Kim, the two countries did not agree on
denuclearization steps, whether an agreement will include
DPRK   missiles, or the mechanisms for verifying any
agreement, including inspection and monitoring
arrangements. China and Russia have called for lifting
several categories of U.N. sanctions, a move the Trump
Administration rejected as premature.

In late December 2019, Kim announced there is no
ground for North Korea to maintain its nuclear and long-
range missile testing moratoria. Kim criticized the United
States' continuation of sanctions, military exercises with
South Korea, and sales of advanced military equipment to
Seoul. Kim warned the world will witness a new strategic


weapon  to be possessed by the DPRK in the near future.
Also in 2019, the U.S. Director of National Intelligence told
Congress North Korea is unlikely to give up all of its
nuclear weapons and production capabilities, even as it
seeks to negotiate partial denuclearization steps to obtain
key U.S. and international concessions.

If talks restart under Biden, U.S. negotiators-and
Members  of Congress conducting oversight-could face the
question of whether to aim for incremental dismantlement
of North Korea's nuclear program in step with gradual
sanctions relief, or to try for a big deal and demand that
complete denuclearization precede full sanctions relief. A
related question is whether the United States would accept
partial denuclearization as an outcome of talks. The
possibility of sanctions relief is complicated by, among
other factors, legal requirements to address a range of
security, regional stability, human rights, and governance
issues before sanctions can be suspended or altogether
terminated. U.S. sanctions on North Korea target not just
weapons  development but also human rights abuses, money
laundering, illicit weapons trade, international terrorism,
and illicit cyber operations.

Key   Developments

North  Korea's  Nuclear  and  Missile Programs
  Kim  in 2018 publicly agreed to work toward complete
   denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, pledging
   permanent dismantlement of nuclear weapons
   production facilities in Yongbyon-an important
   nuclear site-as the United States takes corresponding
   measures. The DPRK   has partially shut down some
   parts of its nuclear testing and missile launch sites. As
   U.S.-DPRK   talks stalled, promises to allow inspections
   or completely dismantle them went unfulfilled.
  North Korea has not tested a nuclear weapon or test-
   launched ICBMs  since November  2017,
   notwithstanding Kim's 2019 statement that the
   moratoria no longer hold.
  Since May  2019, North Korea has conducted over a
   dozen short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) tests, in
   violation of U.N. Security Council prohibitions, likely
   advancing the reliability and precision of its missile
   forces and improving its ability to defeat regional
   missile defense systems. In October 2020, North Korea
   publicly paraded a new ICBM  and other new advanced
   military hardware.
  In January 2021, Pyongyang announced it aims to
   develop tactical nuclear weapons, deploy multiple
   warheads on a single missile, improve its ICBMs'
   accuracy, and launch a spy satellite. Achieving these
   goals may require testing.


ittps://Crsreports.congress.gt

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