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1 1 (December 16, 2019)

handle is hein.crs/govebeh0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Congressional Research Service Informing the legislative debate since 1914 Updated December 16, 2019 Iraq and U.S. Policy Protests and Violence Spur Transition Mass protests and state violence against some protestors have shaken Iraq since October 2019, with more than 450 Iraqis killed by security forces and militiamen in Baghdad and several southern Iraqi cities. Thousands more civilian demonstrators have been injured. After security forces and gunmen killed 45 protestors on November 27 and 28, 2019, Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abd Al Mahdi publicly stated his intent to resign, which protestors and some prominent political figures had been demanding since October. Iraqi legislators in the Council of Representatives (COR) acknowledged the prime minister's resignation on December 1, but he remains in office as a caretaker until the a replacement is endorsed. Procedures for prime-ministerial replacement in cases of resignation are ambiguous under Iraq's constitution, and political differences among leading factions may preclude a prompt resolution. Demonstrations continue, as protestors demand systemic change and an end to corruption and foreign interference, especially by Iran. Iraq's government declared military victory against the Islamic State (IS, aka ISIS/ISIL) in December 2017, but operations against remaining supporters of the group are ongoing. Security has improved since 2017, but thousands of IS fighters in Iraq and Syria pose a continuing threat. IS fighters do not control territory, but carry out frequent attacks in some areas. The nature and duration of the protests and the Iraqi government's responses have deepened U.S. concerns about Iraq's stability. Rocket attacks attributed by U.S. officials to Iranian proxies threaten U.S. personnel and Iraqis. Related future developments, including the treatment of protestors and the outcome of possible national elections in 2020, could complicate U.S. efforts to cooperate with and assist Iraq's government. Congress is considering President Donald Trump's requests for additional military and civilian aid for Iraq without certainty about the future of Iraq's governing arrangements or how further changes in Iraq's politics and security might affect U.S. interests. Iraqi Perspectives Leaders of Iraq's Shia Muslim religious establishment have expressed solidarity with peaceful protestors, rejected foreign interference, and condemned killings of civilians. Shia Grand Ayatollah Ali al Sistani on December 6 demanded that a transitional government be chosen swiftly and independently. Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) leaders have recognized protestors' concerns and criticized repressive violence, while convening to unify positions on proposed reforms that some Kurds fear could undermine the Kurdistan region's rights under Iraq's constitution. Arrests and official discouragement reportedly have prevented the spread of protests to areas of western Iraq predominantly inhabited by Sunni Arabs, but Sunni Arab political figures are now involved in transition negotiations. Some Iraqi officials, Iran's Supreme Leader, and Iran- aligned Iraqi militia leaders have contended that the protest movement is a foreign-backed conspiracy. Iran maintains ties to some armed groups in Iraq, including some units of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). Some PMF units complied with the prime minister's July 2019 decree ordering them to comply with a law calling for PMF subordination to national security command structures. Others did not. Iranian officials, including Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force Commander General Qassem Soleimani, reportedly are working to shape Iraq's transition. However, like U.S. and Iraqi leaders, Iranian leaders also now face new Iraqi political dynamics introduced by the nationalist protest movement. Figure I. Iraq Sources: CRS, using ESRI and U.S. State Department data. Iraq's major ethnic and religious constituencies are internally diverse in political terms, as evident in May 2018 national election results for the 328-seat COR. A pan-ethnic and pan-sectarian coalition of interest groups agreed to support the Abd al Mahdi government, though differences over policy and leadership within and between rival blocs prevented progress on several issues through October 2019. The Sa'irun (On the March) coalition led by populist Shia cleric and longtime U.S. antagonist Muqtada al Sadr and the predominantly Shia Fatah (Conquest) coalition led by Hadi al Ameri of the Badr Organization hold the largest number of COR seats. Fatah includes individuals formerly associated with Shia PMF militias with ties to Iran. Sadr has expressed solidarity with protesters and demanded Abd al Mahdi's resignation, but his coalition has declined to nominate a replacement. COR members are debating electoral system reform to guide elections in 2020. :tps://crsreports.congress.go

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