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             Congresional Rerch Ser U.



Venezuela: Political Crisis and U.S. Policy


Political and Economic   Crisis
Venezuela has been in a deep crisis under the authoritarian
rule of President Nicolas Maduro of the United Socialist
Party of Venezuela (PSUV). Maduro was  narrowly elected
in 2013 after the death of populist President Hugo Chavez,
who  had served since 1999. Maduro's regime has exhibited
high levels of corruption and economic mismanagement,
which have exacerbated the impact of a decline in global oil
prices on the country's economy. According to the
International Monetary Fund, Venezuela's economy
contracted by 18% and inflation exceeded 1.37 million
percent in 2018. Nevertheless, Maduro has used the courts,
security forces, and electoral council to repress political
opposition and quash dissent. According to the Venezuelan
human  rights organization Foro Penal, the regime held 918
political prisoners as of mid-February 2019. Most
Venezuelans and much  of the international community
considered Maduro's May  2018 reelection illegitimate.

Shortages in food and medicine, declines in purchasing
power, and a collapse of social services have created a
humanitarian crisis in Venezuela that is affecting the entire
region. According to household surveys, the percentage of
Venezuelans living in poverty increased from 48.4% in
2014 to 87% in 2017. Health indicators, particularly infant
and maternal mortality rates, have worsened. Previously
eradicated diseases, such as diphtheria and measles, have
returned and spread. As of January 2019, United Nations
(U.N.) agencies estimated that at least 3.4 million
Venezuelans (1 in 10) had left the country, 2.7 million of
whom  were in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Interim  Government Challenges Maduro Regime
Since January 2019, the democratically elected, opposition-
controlled National Assembly and its president, Juan
Guaid6, have garnered domestic and international support
for their efforts to declare Maduro's second term
illegitimate and establish an interim government. The
United States and 53 other countries (most of the European
Union, 15 Western Hemisphere  countries, Australia, and
Japan) have recognized Guaid6 as interim president of
Venezuela. They view the National Assembly as
Venezuela's only democratic institution.

The National Assembly elected Guaid6 as its president on
January 5, 2019; he is a 35-year-old industrial engineer
from the Popular Will (VP) party of Leopoldo L6pez (under
house arrest). In mid-January, Guaid6 announced he was
willing to serve as interim president until new presidential
elections are held. He called for protests on January 23,
2019, the 61St anniversary of the ouster of another dictator.
Buoyed  by massive turnout, Guaid6 took the oath of office
on that day. Under Guaid6's leadership, the National
Assembly  has enacted resolutions declaring that President
Maduro's  mandate is illegitimate, establishing a framework


Updated March  1, 2019


for a transition government, drafting a proposal to offer
amnesty for officials (including the military) who support
the transition, and creating a strategy for receiving
humanitarian assistance.

Many  of Guaid6's supporters had hoped that these actions,
which culminated in a large-scale effort to have Venezuelan
civilians bring assistance from the United States and other
donors into the country on February 23, 2019, would
encourage military officers to abandon the Maduro regime.
In anticipation, the Maduro regime erected barricades at the
border with Colombia, closed the border with Brazil, and
halted air and sea traffic from three neighboring Dutch
Caribbean islands, one of which (Curacao), like Brazil and
Colombia, had agreed to pre-position U.S. assistance.
According to Foro Penal, National Guard troops and armed
civilian militias (colectivos) killed at least five individuals
(four indigenous people), injured hundreds, and burned
trucks containing food and medical supplies. With the
Maduro  regime willing to use force to restrict the arrival of
food and medicine, Guaid6 has limited room to maneuver.

For now, the military high command remains loyal to
Maduro. Many  military leaders have enriched themselves
under Maduro  through corruption, drug trafficking, and
other illicit industries. Others may fear that they will face
prosecution for human rights abuses and others crimes
should a new government take office.

Human Rights Concerns
Human  rights abuses have increased as security forces and
colectivos have quashed protests, detained and abused those
suspected of dissent, and used violence against civilians
seeking to bring food and medicine into the country. In
August 2017, a U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for
Human  Rights report documented human rights violations
perpetrated by Venezuelan security forces against protesters
during clashes that left more than 130 killed and thousands
injured. The International Criminal Court (ICC) is
examining the regime's serious human rights violations; the
Lima Group,  a group of Western Hemisphere countries that
formed in 2016 to coordinate regional efforts to hasten a
return to democracy in Venezuela, has urged the ICC to
investigate the regime's recent denial of access to
international assistance, which constitutes a crime against
humanity. Since 2018, the Maduro regime has arrested and
tortured many of those it perceives as threats, including
military officers and opposition politicians accused of
involvement in alleged coup attempts. A February 2019
Amnesty  International report documents serious human
rights abuses among the more than 900 individuals
arbitrarily detained in January 2019.

international  Response
The international community remains divided over how to
respond to the multifaceted crisis in Venezuela. Russia,


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