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1 1 (June 10, 2020)

handle is hein.crs/govdbxw0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Venezuela: Political Crisis and U.S. Policy Updated June 10, 2020 Venezuela remains in a deep crisis under the authoritarian rule ofNicolds Maduroof the United SocialistParty of Venezuela (PSUV). On January 10, 2019, Maduro began a second termthat most Venezuelans and much of the international community consider illegitimate. Congiess has enacted legislation affecting U.S. policy on Venezuela, appropriated foreign assistance to support thepeople of Venezuela and to address the regional migration crisis, and held oversighthearings on U.S. policy toward Venezuela. Since January 2019, Juan Guaid6, pres ident ofVenezuela's democratically elected, opposition-controlled National As s embly, has sought to forma transition government to serve until internationally observed elections can be held. The United States and 57 other countries recognize Guaid6 as interimpresident. In early 2020, Guaid6 completed an international tour during which he met with President Trump. Thus far, he has provedunable to harness that international support to dislodge Maduro frompower. Maduro was narrowly elected in 2013 after the death of populist President Hugo Chdvez (1999-2013) and reelected in May 2018 in a fraudulent election. Maduro has used the Venezuelan courts, security forces, and electoral council to quash dis sent. Security forces have detained and abused Maduro's opponents, including military officers and oppositionpoliticians. Morerecently, police have violently enforced a Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) quarantine and arrested thosewho have criticized the government's response to the pandemic. As of June 1, 2020, the governmentheld 451 political prisoners, according to ForoPenal, a human rights organization. By most accounts, Maduro's government has mismanaged the economy and engaged in massive corruption, exacerbating the effects of a decline in global oilprices and oil production onthe country's economy. Maduro has rewarded allies, including the military, with income siphoned fromstate industries, as well as from illegal gold mining, drug trafficking, and other illicit activities. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the Venezuelan economy contractedby 35% in 2019 and inflation reached 9,585%. According to IMF forecasts, hyperinflation will continue in 2020 and an economic contractionofsome 15% could occur. Shortages in food and medicine, declines in purchasing power, and a collapseofsocial services havecreated a humanitarian crisis. In April2019, U.N. officials estimated that some 90% of Venezuelans were living in poverty. A February 2020 World Food Program as sessment es timated that 9 million Venezuelans were food insecure. Health indicators, particularly infant and maternal mortality rates, have worsened. Previously eradicated dis eases such as diphtheria and measles havereturned and spread. The COVID- 19 pandemic has presented a new health challenge. The government reported only 24 deaths fromCOVID- 19 (as of June 10), but experts predict that the actual number is much higher and that the pandemic could decimate Venezuela's hollowed-out health system. Some 70% of Venezuelan hospitals surveyed in 2019 lacked access to clean water. A Maduro-Guaid6 agreement negotiated in early June 2020 should allow the Pan American Health Organization to lead relief efforts. In May 2020, U.N. agencies estimatedthat5.1 million Venezuelans had left the country, most ofwhomwere in Latin America and the Caribbean. Migrants face obstacles maintaining informal s ectorjob s and accessing health care, as neighboring countries have implemented quarantines and border closures to prevent the spreadofCOVID-19. On January 5,2019, the NationalAssembly elected Gu aid6, an industrial engineer fromthe Popular Will party, as its president. Guaid6 then announcedhe was willing to serve as interim pres ident until new presidential elections were held. Buoyed by massive protests, Gu aid6 took the oathof office on January 23,2019. Eighteen months later, Guaid6 retains diplomatic support but lacks political power at home. In 2019, Guaid6's supporters organized two unsuccessful efforts to get security forces to abandon Maduro--in February, they sought to bring emergency aid into the country across borders that Maduro had closed, and on April30, Gu aid6 called for a civil-military uprising. After those efforts failed, observers hoped negotiations between Guaid6 and Maduro could lead to an electoral solution to the crisis. When talks stalled, Maduro increased persecution of Guaid6's supporters while negotiating with a group of legislators fromsmaller parties. Maduro installed one of these legislators (Luis Parra) as head of the National Assembly in January 2020-a move that triggeredU.S. sanctions. Guaid6 lost domestic support after being linked to a botchedraid against Maduro in early May 2020 (reportedly involving U.S. mercenaries and former Venezuelan soldiers), and the Supreme Court recognized Parra as head of the assembly. It then ruled that since efforts to select a new electoral council to oversee the legislative elections duein 2020 had stalled in the National Assembly, the courtwould selectthe councilmembers. Legislative elections could occur in December 2020, but many observers maintain that the elections would not be free and fair. A A '2

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