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1 1 (September 15, 2020)

handle is hein.crs/govdbun0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Venezuela: Political Crisis and U.S. Policy Updated September 15,2020 Venezuela remains in a deep crisis under the authoritarian rule ofNicolds Maduroof the United SocialistParty of Venezuela (PSUV). Maduro, narrowly elected in 2013 after the death of President Hugo Chdvez (1999-2013), began a second termon January 10, 2019, that is widely considered illegitimate. Since January 2019, Juan Guaid6, president of Venezuela's democratically elected, opposition-controlled National As sembly, has sought to forma transition government to serve until internationally ob served elections can be held. The United States and 57 other countries recognize Guaid6 as interimpresident, but hehas been unable to use that support to wrest power fromMaduro. Guaid6's termas National Assembly president, aposition that enabled his recognition as interimpresident, is to end in January 2021. Although Guaid6 and manyofhis allies have called for aboycott of legislative elections scheduled for December 6, 2020, other sectors of the opposition, including two-time presidential candidate Henrique Capriles, have discussed fielding candidates. The Trump Administration and many Members of Congress continue to support Guaid6, but divisions within the opposition could enable Maduro to consolidate more power. Maduro, reelected in May 2018 in a fraudulent election, has used the Venezuelan courts, security forces, and electoral council to quash dis sent. Security forces have detained and abused Maduro's opponents, including military officers and oppositionpoliticians. Police have violently enforced a Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) quarantine and arres ted those who have criticized the government's response to the pandemic. As of September 7,2020, the government held 333 politicalprisoners even after pardoning 1 10people following negotiations with Capriles, according to ForoPenal, ahuman rights organization. By most accounts, Maduro's government has mismanaged the economy and engaged in massive corruption, exacerbating the effects of a decline in global oilprices and oil production onthe country's economy. Maduro has rewarded allies, including the military, with income siphoned fromstate industries and fromillegal gold mining, drug trafficking, and other illicit activities. The International Monetary Fund estimates the Venezuelan economy contractedby 35% in 2019 and inflation reached 9,585%. Economic conditions have deteriorated further in 2020 because of gasoline shortages, COVID-19, and broadened U.S. sanctions. Shortages in food and medicine, declines in purchasing power, and a collapseofsocial services havecreated a humanitarian crisis. According to a 2019-2020 household survey, the percentageof Venezuelans living in poverty increasedto 96% in 2019 (80% in extreme poverty). A February 2020 World Food Program as sessment estimated that 9 million Venezuelans were food insecure. Health indicators, particularly infant and maternal mortality rates, have worsened. Previously eradicated dis eases such as diphtheria and measles havereturned and spread. The government reported only 485 deaths fromCOVID-19 (as of September 14), but experts maintain that the actual number is much higher and that the pandemic could decimate Venezuela's hollowed-out health system Some 70% of Venezuelan hospitals surveyed in 2019 lacked access to clean water. A Maduro-Gu aid6 agreement negotiated in June 2020has allowed the Pan American Health Organization to lead relief efforts. In August 2020, U.N. agencies estimated 5.2 million Venezuelans had left the country; most haverelocatedto other countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Migrants face obstacles maintaining employment and acces sing health care, as neighboring countries have implemented quarantines andborder closures to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Guaid6 retains diplomatic support abroad but lacks power at home. In 2019, Guaid6's supporters organized two unsuccessful efforts to encourage security forces to abandon Maduro. After those efforts failed, observers hoped negotiations between Guaid6 and Maduro could lead to an electoral solutionto the crisis. When talks stalled, Maduro increasedpersecution o fGuaid6's supporters. Guaid6 has lost domestic support since reports emergedthat he may have condoned aplan thatresultedin a botchedraid against Maduro in early May 2020. Maduro now seeks to take controlofthe National As sently by convening elections. In June 2020, the Supreme Court ruled that because efforts to select a National Electoral Council (CNE) had stalled in the National Assembly, it would name new CNE rectors to oversee legislative elections. The Supreme Court then disbanded the leadership of three major opposition parties, and the CNE scheduled elections for December 6, 2020. While Guaid6 and 37 oppositionparties are boycotting due to concerns the elections would be neither free nor fair, Maduro has offered concessions, including dismis sing charges against some political opponents and an openness to international election observers, to entice HenriqueCapriles andhis allies to participate. Capriles wants the elections to be postponed and observedby the EuropeanUnion (EU)- conditions that appear unlikely to occur. The international conmrunity remains divided over how to respond to the crisis in Venezuela. The United States, A A '2

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