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1 1 (July 30, 2020)

handle is hein.crs/govdbgd0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Researh Sevice Economic Activity and the Expiration of COVID-19 Relief Provisions July 30, 2020 The federal response to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis has included programs providing economic relief to individuals, businesses, and state and local governments. The recent or looming expiration or exhaustion of several of these programs has generated congressional discussions on the effect that this could have on the U.S. economy's short- and long-term performance. This Insight briefly summarizes the current economic recession and fiscal policy response, highlights some programs that are near expiration or exhaustion of funding, and discusses underlying economic issues. Recession Characteristics The COVID-19 crisis generated a sudden and severe decline in economic activity. The national unemployment rate rose from 3.5% in February 2020, the last month before the declaration of a national emergencv under the StaffordAct, to 14.7% in April 2020, the highest monthly rate recorded by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (dating back to 1948). The advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimated that real GDP declined at an annual rate of 32.9% in the second quarter of 2020, which is larger than any single quarterly change in real GDP measured by the BEA (dating back to 1947). Both supply-side and demand-side issues are contributing to the current economic decline. Social distancing measures have resulted in many businesses not being able to supply goods and services at the same level or in the same manner as prior to the pandemic. Fears about the virus and uncertainty about future economic conditions have also led to high savings rates and low consumption and investment. That this decline is rooted in a public health crisis has generated much uncertainty in predicting the path of the recession and subsequent recovery. An eventual arrival of a vaccine and easing of public health concerns may lead to a quick recovery relative to the experience in other recessions. The size of the economic decline, however, indicates that even a relatively brief dec line may have lasting financial effects on households and businesses. Congressional Re search Service https://crsreports.congress.gov IN11475 CRS MN GHT Prepa red M. Membersand Com0 , fti esefmo gCo n r -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

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