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1 1 (April 9, 2020)

handle is hein.crs/govckyt0001 and id is 1 raw text is: FF.$ p\w -- , gnom go mppm qq\ , q I as 11LIANJILiN, Updated April 9, 2020 Iraq and U.S. Policy >rcotests, ants Fr~ uture Iraqi authorities have instituted curfews and travel restrictions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which poses serious public health, economic, and fiscal risks for the country. Public health measures to slow the spread of the disease have diminished participation in the protest movement that has swept central and southern Iraq since October 2019. Security forces and militia members killed hundreds of protestors and wounded thousands in Baghdad and several southern Iraqi cities, fueling calls for the ouster of the ruling elite. While crowds have dispersed, protestors' demands for systemic change and an end to corruption and foreign interference remain unmet. Meanwhile, intense U.S.-Iranian confrontation has reinvigorated some Iraqis' efforts to drive U.S. and other foreign forces out of Iraq. Following escalating Iran-linked threats to U.S. and Iraqi personnel in 2019, a January 2020 U.S. air strike in Iraq killed Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force Commander General Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces leader Abu Mahdi al Muhandis. Iran launched missiles at Iraqi bases hosting U.S. personnel in response. The U.S. strike eliminated key figures in Iran's efforts to shape Iraqi security and politics, but the Iran-U.S. violence has further complicated underlying disputes over government leadership and the future of Iraq's security partnerships. Iran-backed militias since have conducted additional rocket attacks, killing U.S. and U.K. personnel in March. U.S. forces retaliated militarily, and further escalation remains possible. In response to the protests and violence, Prime Minister Adel Abd al Mahdi resigned in November 2019, but he has served in a caretaker role while political blocs and protestors have deadlocked over selecting a replacement prime minister-designate. President Barham Salih's first two nominees were unable to garner sufficient political support. In April 2020, Salih nominated Iraqi National Intelligence Service (INIS) director Mustafa al Kadhimi as prime minister-designate. Government formation talks have resumed. Alongside issues raised by the COVID-19 pandemic, principal questions for Iraqi and U.S. leaders include whether or how to redefine the nature of and framework for bilateral security cooperation. While some Iraqis demand the expulsion of foreign forces, U.S. personnel are assisting Iraqi forces against Islamic State (IS, aka ISIS/ISIL) threats and build Iraqi capabilities. U.S. forces remain in Iraq and are consolidating basing locations. U.S. training has been suspended due to COVID-19 risks, and U.S. officials say future training will use fewer bases with fewer people. With plans and timing for political transition uncertain, significant public health, economic, and fiscal pressures relating to the COVID-19 pandemic and plummeting global oil prices are further upending the status quo. Political differences among leading blocs have precluded the prompt replacement of Prime Minister Abd al Mahdi. Protestors have demanded an independent candidate with a demonstrated record of honest leadership, with many rejecting President Salih's nominees and alternatives proposed by political blocs. Current Prime Minister- designate Mustafa al Kadhimi has until May 9, 2020, to propose a cabinet list for approval by the Council of Representatives (COR), Iraq's unicameral legislature. Figure I. Iraq IRAQ - : . .. ., , S1 .v > _ .. • :: <::: -< : . :::::::::::::: , . ..0+ Sources: CRS, using ESRI and U.S. State Department data. Leaders of Iraq's Shia Muslim religious establishment have expressed solidarity with peaceful protestors, rejected foreign interference, and condemned killings of civilians. On January 31, Shia Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani condemned violence against protestors and called on authorities to hold elections swiftly and independently. Sistani also issued a religious decree in March, calling for collective action to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. In the current COR, the Sa 'irun (On the March) coalition led by populist Shia cleric and frequent U.S. antagonist Muqtada al Sadr and the predominantly Shia Fatah (Conquest) coalition led by Hadi al Ameri of the Badr Organization hold the largest number of seats. Their respective coalitions have formed the cores of larger rival COR blocs, with Sa'irun anchoring the Islah (Reform) bloc and Fatah anchoring the predominantly Shia Arab Bin 'a (Reconstruction) bloc the largest in the COR.

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