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1 1 (March 16, 2020)

handle is hein.crs/govcjzu0001 and id is 1 raw text is: , . ' riE S-' $. h ,. , Venezuela: Political Crisis and U.S. Policy Venezuela remains in a deep crisis under the authoritarian rule of Nicol6s Maduro of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). On January 10, 2019, Maduro began a second term that most Venezuelans and much of the international community consider illegitimate. The 116th Congress has enacted legislation affecting U.S. policy on Venezuela, appropriated foreign assistance to support the people of Venezuela and to address the regional migration crisis, and conducted numerous oversight hearings on U.S. policy toward Venezuela. Since January 2019, Juan Guaid6, president of Venezuela's democratically elected, opposition-controlled National Assembly, has sought to form a transition government to serve until internationally observed elections can be held. The United States and 57 other countries recognize Guaid6 as interim president. Guaid6 has been unable to wrest Maduro from power and has faced increased danger since returning home from an early 2020 diplomatic tour, which included a meeting with President Trump. Some observers believe that National Assembly elections due this year might start an electoral path out of the current stalemate. Maduro was narrowly elected in 2013 after the death of populist President Hugo Chdvez (1999-2013) and reelected in May 2018 in an election characterized by widespread fraud. Maduro has used the Venezuelan courts, security forces, and electoral council to quash dissent. As of March 9, 2020, the Maduro government held some 316 political prisoners, according to Foro Penal, a human rights organization. At the same time, Maduro has rewarded allies, including the military, with income from illegal gold mining, drug trafficking, and other illicit activities. By most accounts, Maduro's government has mismanaged the economy and engaged in massive corruption, exacerbating the effects of a decline in global oil prices and collapsing oil production on the country's economy. According to International Monetary Fund estimates, Venezuela's economy contracted by 35% in 2019 and inflation reached some 200,000%. Hyperinflation is forecast to continue in 2020, but the rate of economic decline may ease as oil production stabilizes (albeit at a low level) and remittances increase. Shortages in food and medicine, declines in purchasing power, and a collapse of social services have created a humanitarian crisis. In April 2019, U.N. officials estimated that some 90% of Venezuelans were living in poverty and a quarter of the population needed humanitarian assistance. Health indicators, particularly infant and maternal mortality rates, have worsened. Previously eradicated diseases such as diphtheria and measles have returned and spread. In February 2020, U.N. agencies estimated that 4.8 million - mmm, go mppm qq\ , q I aS 11LIANJILiN, Updated March 16, 2020 Venezuelans had left the country, most of whom were in Latin America and the Caribbean. Migrant flows continue, but migrants may face additional obstacles as neighboring countries close their borders in an attempt to prevent the spread of coronavirus. On January 5, 2019, the National Assembly elected Guaid6, a 35-year-old industrial engineer from the Popular Will party, as its president. In mid-January, Guaid6 announced he was willing to serve as interim president until new presidential elections were held. Buoyed by a massive turnout for anti-Maduro protests, Guaid6 took the oath of office on January 23, 2019. A year later, Guaid6 retains broad diplomatic support, but he lacks political power. In 2019, Guaid6's supporters organized two high-profile but ultimately unsuccessful efforts to get security forces to abandon Maduro-in February, Guaid6 supporters sought to bring emergency aid into the country across borders that Maduro had closed, and on April 30, Guaid6 called for a civil-military uprising. After those efforts failed, observers hoped that mediated negotiations between Guaid6 and Maduro could lead to an electoral solution to the crisis. When those talks stalled, Maduro increased persecution of Guaid6's supporters while negotiating with a group of legislators from smaller parties, one of whom he tried to install as head of the National Assembly. Maduro may try to move up legislative elections due by December 2020 to wrest control of that body, but such a move could lead to strong international pushback. Human rights abuses have increased as security forces and civilian militias have violently quashed protests and detained and abused those suspected of dissent. A July 2019 report by the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) estimated that security forces committed some 6,800 extrajudicial killings from January 2018 through May 2019. OHCHR detailed how intelligence agencies have arrested and tortured those perceived as threats to Maduro, including military officers and opposition politicians. Some fear Guaid6 could face arrest. The international community remains divided over how to respond to the crisis in Venezuela. The United States, Canada, most of the European Union (EU), and 16 Western Hemisphere countries are among the 57 countries that recognize Guaid6 as interim president. The United States, EU, Canada, and 11 Western Hemisphere countries that are states parties to the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance (Rio Treaty) have imposed targeted sanctions and travel bans on Maduro officials. The EU and Western Hemisphere countries oppose military intervention to oust .O 'T

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