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1 1 (March 16, 2018)

handle is hein.crs/govchvv0001 and id is 1 raw text is: FF. ' riE S- . $ri ,.,- i March 16, 2018 Flashpoints in Syria and Iraq Create Challenges for U.S. Policy Interconnected active and latent armed conflicts in Syria and Iraq involving a range of domestic groups and international actors could further destabilize the region and create evolving policy challenges for U.S. policymakers. Related instability gives Iran opportunities to expand its influence and could lead to resurgence of the Islamic State (IS, also known as ISIS/ISIL), which has lost control over nearly all of the territory it once occupied. Several incidents in 2018 have focused attention on this complex, dynamic environment, complicating U.S. priorities and policies. ~S'~ E ~Stnrkes% inl 'SyVH Since 2012, Israel reportedly has conducted dozens of airstrikes in Syria. Initially, these focused mainly on preventing the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. However, because Iran-backed forces and Russia have strengthened the Syrian regime's position considerably since late 2015, Iran's posture toward Israel from Syria appears to have grown more assertive. Consequently, Israeli strikes in the past two years have also focused on preventing Iran from establishing bases or weapons factories in Syria, or opening new terror fronts along Israel's northern border. A February 2018 cross- border incident highlighted the possibility that Israel's limited strikes against Iran-backed forces to enforce its redlines could expand into wider conflict, particularly in cases of miscalculation by one or both sides. The reported exchange of fire, apparently sparked by the entry of an Iranian drone into Israeli airspace, caused Israel to down the drone and retaliate against its Iranian operators in central Syria. When a Syrian air defense battery shot down an Israeli F-16 in Israeli airspace (the first loss of an Israeli jet in combat since 1982), Israel responded by destroying a number of Syrian air defense units and Iranian facilities in Syria. Reports indicate that Israel's reprisal may have been more extensive, if not for a Russian demand to limit its scope. Advanced Russian air defenses deployed in Syria have the potential to challenge Israeli air superiority. Actions since February seem to indicate that neither Israel nor Iran and its allies seek a broader military confrontation at present, but miscalculation remains a risk. Confict Akangth. $'hrkse The U.S.-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have captured much of northeastern Syria north of the Euphrates River from the Islamic State. Forces aligned with the government of Syrian President Bashar al Asad, including from Russia and Iran, have taken much of the territory south of the river, leading to a situation in which the two sides share a fluid de facto line of control (or deconfliction line) that mostly corresponds to the river. Clashes between the two sides fuel risks of a more general escalation. Such clashes include a February 2018 incident near Deir ez Zor that reportedly involved a large column of Asad-linked forces advancing on SDF positions outside the city near lucrative oil fields. U.S. force protection strikes in response reportedly killed dozens of fighters, including some Russian nationals. Russian officials stated that no Russian armed forces personnel were killed, and suggested that the Asad- linked forces did not coordinate their attack with Moscow. T i O' p 't ', t ,,s m ',,ir Turkey's military operations in Syria began with an offensive against IS -held territory in August 2016, and expanded to the Kurdish-held territory of Afrin in January 2018. Afrin is administered by the People's Protection Units (Kurdish acronym YPG), a group that Turkey views as a direct extension of the PKK (a U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization that has waged a decades-long insurgency against Turkey). Asad-linked militias may be indirectly aiding the YPG in Afrin, but giving the regime a foothold there could undermine the Kurdish goal of autonomy. Outside of Afrin, the United States has partnered with the YPG whose commanders and fighters have been core elements of SDF forces against the Islamic State. Turkish officials have stated their intention to extend military operations eastward from Afrin, and the town of Manbij has emerged as a focal point of U.S.-Turkish tensions. (Turkish officials argue that U.S. promises made in 2016 that YPG elements would withdraw from Manbij have not been fulfilled.) U.S. forces have deployed in and around Manbij since at least March 2017. A series of high-level U.S.- Turkey meetings that took place in February 2018 established a mechanism for resolving tensions. Doing so may prove difficult given apparent gaps between U.S. and Turkish priorities in Syria. S~kcurkY Ak,,cd Ira Nk~q 'usm, \N'ra Iraqi leaders declared victory against the Islamic State in December 2017 but face ongoing IS insurgent attacks. Tensions also persist between the national government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) the United States' principal security partners. In September 2017, the KRG held a referendum on independence, in spite of opposition from the U.S. and Iraqi governments and Iraq's neighbors. Kurds overwhelmingly backed independence, but in October 2017 the Iraqi government returned security forces, including volunteer Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), to long-disputed areas between the constitutionally recognized Kurdistan region and the rest of Iraq. This included areas secured by Kurdish forces after the 2014 IS offensive, such as oil-rich Kirkuk. PMF units are set to be incorporated into Iraq's military chain of command, but the presence of some Iran-supported Shia PMF units may exacerbate inter-communal tensions. National elections in Iraq planned for May could reshape the balance of political forces, with implications for Baghdad-KRG relations, KRG leadership, stabilization, and the continued deployment of U.S. military personnel. p\w -- , gn'a', goo mppm qq\ a , q 'S I 11LIANJILiN,

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