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April 12, 2017
U.S. Relations with Burma: Key Issues for 2017
Between 2011 and 2015, the Obama Administration
increased engagement with Burma (Myanmar), and waived
some of the sanctions imposed by Congress. Following the
formation of a new government in April 2016, with Aung
San Suu Kyi in the newly created position as State
Counsellor, the Obama Administration waived most of the
remaining restrictions on U.S. relations. Congress,
however, chose to continue some restrictions via
appropriations legislation. The Trump Administration has
provided little indication of its intended policy toward
Burma.
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Burma has endured a low-intensity civil war since 1948, the
result of a perceived failure, according to many of Burma's
ethnic minorities, of Burma's central government to abide
by the terms of the Panglong Agreement which granted
Burma's seven ethnic states a high degree of autonomy. For
nearly 70 years, the Burmese government and various
ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) have vacillated between
periods of active fighting and times of relative peace under
negotiated ceasefire agreements. In 2011, several ceasefire
agreements broke down and fighting between the Burmese
military, or Tatmadaw, and some of the EAOs increased.
During his term in office (2011-2016), former President
Them Sein attempted to negotiate a nationwide ceasefire
agreement with most of the EAOs. Those efforts were
partially successful, when, on October 15, 2015, 8 of 21
EAOs signed a ceasefire agreement with the Them Sein
government and the Tatmadaw. Thein Sein's subsequent
efforts to advance the peace process were largely
unsuccessful.
Aung San Suu Kyi has made the peace process a top
priority of the new NLD-led government. More than 1,400
representatives of ethnic political parties, EAOs, the NLD-
led government, the Tatmadaw, and other concerned parties
attended a peace conference, dubbed the 2 l t Century
Panglong Peace Conference, in Naypyitaw, Burma on
August 31 September 3, 2016. Progress at the conference
appeared to be hampered by the Tatmadaw's objection to
inviting three EAOs-the Arakan Army, the Myanmar
National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Ta'ang
National Liberation Army-to the conference. Statements
presented by Commander-in-Chief Senior General Min
Aung Hlaing and representatives of several EAOs,
moreover, indicated a serious gap in their visions of a
democratic federated union of Burma. A second peace
conference, originally scheduled for the end of February,
has been postponed indefinitely.
The NLD-led government faces many of the same
challenges in the peace negotiations that the Them Sein
government faced, including:
* Disagreement over the distribution of power between
the central government and the seven ethnic States; and
* The Tatmadaw's opposition to the participation of
several of the EAOs in the negotiations, and the
insistence of several of the larger EAOs that all EAOs
be included.
Progress is also being hindered by the continuing fighting
between the Tatmadaw and ethnic militias in the States of
Kachin and Shan. Most of these ethnic militias are
associated with EAOs that did not sign the October 2015
ceasefire agreement. Fighting between the Tatmadaw and
the EAOs escalated following the 2016 peace conference,
raising doubts about the Tatmadaw's commitment to peace.
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Rakhine State is home for two major ethnic groups, the
Rakhine (or Arakan) and the Rohingya. The Rohingya have
been subjected to human rights abuses, mostly perpetrated
by the government and military, for more than 50 years. In
1982, Burma's military junta promulgated a series of
discriminatory policies, including a new Citizenship Law
that effectively stripped the Rohingya of their citizenship.
The junta also denied the Rohingya such rights as access to
education and employment, and freedom of movement. The
Them Sein government continued these practices when it
was in power.
The NLD-led government initially showed some
willingness to reexamine past policies in Rakhine State. For
example, on August 24, 2016, Aung San Suu Kyi
announced the creation of an international Advisory
Commission on Rakhine State, headed by former U.N.
Secretary General Kofi Annan, to analyze the factors that
have resulted in violence in Rakhine State.
On October 9, 2016, an unknown number of assailants
attacked three border outposts in northern Rakhine State,
killing nine Myanmar Police Force (MPF) officers. In
response, the Tatmadaw deployed additional security
personnel into northern Rakhine State, imposed martial law,
and restricted humanitarian assistance and media access to
the affected areas of northern Rakhine State as part of a
clearance operation.
The Tatmadaw and the NLD-led government initially
claimed that the attacks were carried out by a group of
Rohingya organized by Aqa Mul Mujahidin, a Muslim
extremist group operating in Bangladesh. The Tatmadaw
and the NLD-led government subsequently attributed the
attacks to a different group, the Harakah al-Yaqin (HaY).
(The group's leader, Ata Ullah, has renamed the
organization the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army
[ARSA], which he claimed is committed to defending the
rights of the Rohingya.)
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