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1 1 (October 22, 2015)

handle is hein.crs/govccvz0001 and id is 1 raw text is: FF. ' riE ,E-' $rh ,i . , Updated October 22, 2015 U.S. Relations with Burma: Key Issues for 2015 (Update) U.S. relations with Burma (Myanmar) in 2015 have continued to present challenges. Burma is scheduled to hold nationwide parliamentary elections on November 8, 2015, which the Administration has called an important milestone in Burma's political transition. As detailed below, efforts to conclude a nationwide ceasefire agreement (CA) to end nearly six decades of low-grade civil war have yielded mixed results. Ethnic crisis in Rakhine State continues. The upcoming elections have heightened the sensitivity of issues at the heart of the crisis, including, for example, the citizenship status of ethnic Rohingya. Other pressing issues include the rise of Ma Ba Tha, a nationalist Buddhist group, and its anti-Islam rhetoric; the continued arrest and detention of political prisoners; and the incomplete fulfillment of President Thein Sein's 11 commitments made during President Obama's 2012 visit. During his visit to Burma in November 2014, President Obama stated that the democratization process in Burma was both real and incomplete. In a letter to President Obama, 41 Members of the House questioned Administration decisions to undertake new initiatives in Burma while reforms appear to have stalled or even reversed. The 113th Congress authorized new military-to-military programs in Burma that are likely to begin after the parliamentary elections, depending on how the elections are conducted and their results. Many observers anticipate that Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) party will emerge from the November elections as the largest party in the new parliament. However, it is unclear if it will have sufficient support to form a new government. By contrast, because 25% of seats are reserved for active military officers likely to support the pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), the USDP only needs to win just over another 25% of the seats to form a government. Proposed changes to Burma's 2008 constitution that are backed by the NLD and other opposition parties-including one that would allow Aung San Suu Kyi to be eligible to become president-were rejected by the Union Parliament in July. In addition, Burma's Union Election Commission (UEC), which runs the elections, has placed some restrictions on campaigning that may hinder the prospects of the opposition parties and favor the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). Although it did not do so during the 2010 parliamentary elections, Burma has said it will allow international observers in 2015. The State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) are working with the Them Sein government, the Union Parliament, and the UEC in hopes that the 2015 elections will be credible, transparent, and inclusive. U.S. election assistance to Burma has in part been allocated by USAID to the International Republican Institute (IRI) and the National Democratic Institute (NDI). The Them Sein government, the Burmese military (Tatmadaw), and representatives of eight ethnic groups signed a ceasefire agreement (CA) on October 15. However, many larger ethnic groups, including the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), refused to sign unless three other ethnic groups-the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar Nationalities Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Ta-ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)-also sign the agreement. The Tatmadaw, which has sustained substantial casualties in fighting with the three groups, opposes the AA, MNDAA, and TNLA signing the CA until each group negotiates a separate ceasefire agreement. The Them Sein government also is opposed to three non-combatant ethnic groups-the Arakan National Council, the Lahu Democratic Union, and Wa National Organization-signing the CA. President Them Sein had made concluding the ceasefire agreement before the November parliamentary election a priority, in part to improve the USDP's prospects. The CA does not address some controversial issues, such as the terms of post-ceasefire political dialogue, the status of the ethnic militias, and the ceasefire's code of conduct for the Tatmadaw and the ethnic militias. Meanwhile, low- intensity conflict continues in Kachin, Mon, and Shan states. Fighting between the Burmese Army and the MNDAA in the Kokang region of Shan State has been particularly intense. The Rohingya are one of two ethnic minorities living in Burma's Rakhine State. The Thein Sein government insists that the Rohingyas be called Bengalis because the government considers most of them to be illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, even though many of them have lived in Burma for generations. On February 11, 2015, President Them Sein announced that Temporary Registration Certificates, known as white cards, would expire on March 31, 2015, eliminating the official document that allowed most Rohingya formally to reside in Burma. In addition the expiration of the white cards also disenfranchised the Rohingyas for the 2015 parliamentary elections. Moreover, the UEC initially barred 124 candidates (11 have been reinstated) from running in the November election, with a disproportionate number of .O 'T a - , gn'a', ggmm 'S 11L1\\k\NJ1kJ\W,

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