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1 1 (January 9, 2020)

handle is hein.crs/govcaem0001 and id is 1 raw text is: 01; F ie sea.rch & January 9, 2020 The 2019-2020 Iran Crisis and U.S. Military Deployments The January 2, 2020, U.S. drone strike against Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani, the subsequent Iranian counter-strike on bases hosting U.S. personnel in Iraq, and recent deployments of U.S. military forces to the Middle East have prompted widespread concerns about whether the United States is preparing to engage in another major military campaign in the region. Yet at present, the flow of additional forces into the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR) suggests that the Department of Defense (DOD) is posturing itself in the region defensively, with the ability to respond to aggression, if necessary. The design of this posture may be altered should there be changes to security or political conditions on the ground, or political objectives for the region. Figure I. The CENTCOM AOR U A F B~w ~spaob ~Th~' t t~~9h1ph1t raru~w ltI I. ND IA Curent U 5,. presence Map: CRS, Jan. 8, 2020. Presence data: CENTCOM.mil (2016); DOD Base Structure Report (2015); federal contracting announcements (https://govtribe.com, 2015); MilitaryBases.com (2016); and CRS analysis. Map boundaries: Dept. of State (2015); Esri (2014). Names and boundaries not necessarily authoritative. The Trump Administration has stated that its core objective ... is the systemic change in the Islamic Republic's hostile and destabilizing actions, including blocking all paths to a nuclear weapon and exporting terrorism. Most recently, U.S. officials have argued that additional forces flowing in the region, as well as the strike against Soleimani, are intended to re-establish deterrence. The military is but one tool of national power that could be used in a variety of ways to achieve the above stated U.S. objectives. These range from increasing presence and posture in the region to seeking regime change. As with any use of the military instrument, any choice to employ U.S. forces-or not-is an inherently risky endeavor and could result in retaliatory Iranian action and/or the further escalation of a crisis in unpredictable ways. Iran's actions may influence U.S. force levels as much as or more so than U.S. plans. Precise figures of deployed U.S. personnel are difficult to determine due to unit rotations in and out of a given theater. According to DOD, as of June 19, 2019, there are approximately 60-80,000 U.S. troops in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, including approximately 13,000 troops in Afghanistan and 5,200 in Iraq. In recent months, the Pentagon has announced several troop and capability movements to and from the CENTCOM theater; with rotations, these announced deployments total approximately 10,000 additional troops. Key announcements, which should be treated as illustrative rather than definitive deployment figures, include the following: * On May 5, 2019, then-National Security Adviser John Bolton announced that the United States was accelerating the previously planned deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group in response to tensions to the region and sending a bomber task force to the Persian Gulf area. The Lincoln was relieved by the USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group in December 2019. * On May 24, 2019, DOD said that the President approved a plan to augment U.S. defense and deterrence against Iran by deploying to the Gulf region an additional 900 military personnel, extending the deployment of another 600 that were sent earlier to operate Patriot missile defense equipment, and sending additional combat and reconnaissance aircraft. * On June 17, 2019, then-Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan announced that the United States was sending an additional 1,000 military personnel to the Gulf for defensive purposes. * On July 18, 2019, U.S. defense officials said that an additional 500 U.S. troops would deploy to Saudi Arabia. The deployment, to Prince Sultan Air Base south of Riyadh, reportedly will include fighter aircraft and air defense equipment. * On September 20, 2019, U.S. officials announced a moderate (widely interpreted as 200 personnel) deployment of additional U.S. forces to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The forces reportedly accompany additional missile defense systems and combat aircraft sent to facilities in those countries, and are defensive in nature. * On October II, 2019, U.S. officials announced the deployment of additional forces and capabilities to Saudi Arabia, including approximately 1,800 air defense personnel, fighter squadrons, and an air expeditionary wing. gogmko goo g , q 'S a X 11LULANJILiN,

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