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Updated February 3, 2020


Iraq and U.S. Policy


A protest movement has swept central and southern Iraq
since October 2019, with protestors demanding reform and
political change. Security forces and militia members have
killed hundreds of protestors and wounded thousands in
Baghdad and several southern Iraqi cities, fueling calls for
the ouster of the ruling elite. Meanwhile, intense
confrontation between Iran and the United States has
reinvigorated some Iraqis' efforts to force an end to the
U.S. military presence in Iraq.
Amid escalating Iran-linked threats to U.S. and Iraqi
personnel, a January 2020 U.S. air strike in Iraq killed
Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force
Commander General Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi Popular
Mobilization Forces leader Abu Mahdi al Muhandis. Iran
launched missiles at Iraqi bases hosting U.S. personnel in
response. The U.S. strike eliminated key figures in Iran's
efforts to shape Iraqi security and politics, but Iran-U.S.
violence has further complicated underlying disputes
among Iraqis over government leadership and the future of
Iraq's international orientation and partnerships.
In response to the protests and violence, Prime Minister
Abd al Mahdi resigned in November 2019, continuing to
serve in a caretaker role while political blocs and protestors
have deadlocked over selecting a replacement. After issuing
a deadline to leading political forces to overcome their
differences, on February 1, President Barham Salih named
former Communications Minister Mohammed Tawfiq
Allawi as prime minister-designate, initiating a process of
government formation. Many protestors rejected Allawi's
nomination; others pledged support (see below).
Principal questions for Iraqi and U.S. leaders in 2020
include whether or how to redefine the nature of and
framework for bilateral security cooperation. While some
Iraqis demand the expulsion of foreign forces, U.S.
personnel continue to assist Iraqi forces against Islamic
State (IS, aka ISIS/ISIL) threats and build Iraqi capabilities.
Iraqi leaders are grappling with the protest movement's
insistence on systemic change and an end to corruption and
foreign interference.
The nature of past Iraqi debates over government formation
and possible national elections suggest that the transition
period now underway could be sensitive and extended.
Related outcomes could further complicate U.S. efforts to
cooperate with and assist Iraq's government. As Congress
considers new appropriations and authorization proposals
on Iraq, it may do so without certainty about Iraq's future
governing arrangements or how further change in Iraq
might affect U.S. interests.


Political differences among leading blocs precluded Prime
Minister Abd al Mahdi's prompt replacement, while
protestors demanded an independent candidate with a
demonstrated record of honest leadership.
In December 2019 and January 2020, President Salih
declined to nominate candidates proposed by the
predominantly Shia Arab Bin 'a (Reconstruction) bloc the
largest bloc in the unicameral legislature, the Council of
Representatives (COR). Salih cited concerns that the protest
movement would not approve of the Bin'a nominees.
Figure I. Iraq






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Sources: CRS, using ESRI and U.S. State Department data.
Leaders of Iraq's Shia Muslim religious establishment have
expressed solidarity with peaceful protestors, rejected
foreign interference, and condemned killings of civilians.
Shia Grand Ayatollah Ali al Sistani on January 31
condemned violence against protestors and called for
elections to be held swiftly and independently. The COR
adopted new electoral laws in December, replacing Iraq's
list-based election system with an individual candidate- and
district-based system that may require a potentially
controversial census to be implemented.

Iraq last held national elections in May 2018 for the 328-
seat COR. A pan-ethnic and pan-sectarian coalition of
interest groups agreed to support the Abd al Mahdi
government, though differences over policy and leadership
extended cabinet approval into 2019 and delayed progress
on several key issues relevant to protestors. The Sa 'irun
(On the March) coalition led by populist Shia cleric and
frequent U.S. antagonist Muqtada al Sadr and the
predominantly Shia Fatah (Conquest) coalition led by Hadi

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