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1 1 (October 22, 2019)

handle is hein.crs/govbbmd0001 and id is 1 raw text is: 1 o g the legislative d~batc s nc~ 19 Congressional Research Service Updated October 22, 2019 Iraq and U.S. Policy Iraqis Struggle to Define a Way Forward Two years after victory was declared in the country's years- long military struggle against the Islamic State (IS, aka ISIL/ISIS) unresolved issues involving governance, territorial control, resources, and security cloud the path ahead for Iraq's leaders. Among the issues they face in late 2019 are popular protests and discontent, balancing competing priorities and competition between two of their key allies, the United States and Iran, and the potential for IS resurgence. Long-term fiscal challenges and demographic pressures loom. The May 2018 national election for Iraq's unicameral legislature, the Council of Representatives (COR), proceeded without major security disruptions, but the election's disputed outcome delayed government formation. In October 2018, the newly seated COR elected former Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Prime Minister Barham Salih as Iraq's President. Salih, in turn, nominated former Oil Minister Adel Abd al Mahdi, a Shia Arab, as Prime Minister-designate. Lawmakers confirmed Prime Minister Abd al Mahdi and some of his cabinet nominees later that month. Abd al Mahdi, a consensus candidate, has at times appeared unable to set the agenda amid ongoing competition between and within rival COR blocs. The summer months, which in recent years featured protests by civilians condemning corruption and calling for better governance and more economic opportunity, passed without incident. In October, however, persistent frustration surfaced in a series of mass demonstrations, during which, in some cases, security forces used live ammunition against protestors. Nearly 150 civilians died and more than 6,000 were injured. The unrest and the heavy handed, apparently unauthorized response led to calls for the government to resign. The Prime Minister has announced a series of socioeconomic support measures, fired military officers following a probe, and proposed a cabinet reshuffle that has failed to gain COR approval. Protests have subsided, but anger reportedly remains potent. In August, Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General for Iraq Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert had told the Security Council the harsh reality is that the Government needs time to fight the many narrow partisan interests and to deliver. Without changes to underlying political dynamics and balances of political power, the prospects for improvement appear limited. Behind the scenes, tensions between the national government and the KRG have diminished since the KRG's September 2017 advisory referendum on independence and the subsequent return of Iraqi security forces to disputed territories, but disputes remain over oil revenue. The paramilitary Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) created to fight the Islamic State have resisted integration under national security institutions on the Prime Minister's terms, in spite of his reiteration by decree in July 2019 of their obligation to do so. Groups and individuals associated with the PMF, some of whom have close ties to Iran, won COR seats in the 2018 election and remain politically influential. Figure I. Iraq Source: CRS, using ESRI and U.S. State Department data. Is4amic State Insurgency Iraq's government declared military victory against the Islamic State in December 2017, but counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations against remaining supporters of the group are ongoing. Security conditions have improved since 2017, but an estimated 15,000 IS fighters spread across Iraq and Syria pose a continuing threat and have the potential to regroup and escalate insurgent activities. The Islamic State does not control territory, but carries out frequent attacks in some areas. Iraqi forces, national ministries, and local authorities are cooperating to protect and stabilize liberated areas and prevent IS reinfiltration. Iraq's military has said that U.S. military forces withdrawing from northeastern Syria may transit Iraq, but do not have permission to remain in Iraq, where some groups continue to call for a full U.S. withdrawal. The Islamic State left destruction, displacement, and division in its wake. Explosive ordnance and infrastructure damage complicate civilian returns, with volatile interpersonal divisions remaining between those who fled or fought against the Islamic State and those accused of collaboration. Economic and humanitarian conditions remain difficult in many areas, and more than 1.5 million individuals remain internally displaced. Iraqi officials have identified more than $88 billion in recovery needs. ttps:/icrsreportsco e

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