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ICongressiona Research Service
Venezuela: Political Crisis and U.S. Policy
The political situation in Venezuela has been in flux since
Juan Guaid6, head of the National Assembly, announced
that he would become became interim president of
Venezuela in January 2019. Although the United States and
54 other countries recognize Guaid6's government, he has
been unable to wrest Nicolfs Maduro from power and form
a transition government to convene free and fair elections.
Guaid6 and Maduro have engaged in talks to end the
standoff since May, but prospects for a negotiated solution
to the crisis remain uncertain.
Background on the Political and Economic Crisis
Maduro, leader of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela
(PSUV), was narrowly elected in 2013 after the death of
populist President Hugo Chivez, who had served since
1999. Most Venezuelans and much of the international
community considered Maduro's May 2018 reelection
illegitimate. Maduro has used the courts, security forces,
and electoral council to quash dissent. The human rights
organization Foro Penal estimated that the regime held 522
political prisoners as of August 19, 2019.
Maduro's government has mismanaged the economy and
engaged in massive corruption, exacerbating the impact of a
decline in global oil prices and collapsing oil production on
the country's economy. According to the International
Monetary Fund, Venezuela's economy contracted by 18%
in 2018. Inflation may exceed 10 million percent in 2019.
Shortages in food and medicine, declines in purchasing
power, and a collapse of social services have created a
humanitarian crisis. In April 2019, U.N officials estimated
that some 90% of Venezuelans are living in poverty and 7
million are in need of humanitarian assistance. Health
indicators, particularly infant and maternal mortality rates,
have worsened. Previously eradicated diseases like
diphtheria and measles have returned and spread. In August
2019, U.N. agencies estimated that 4.3 million Venezuelans
had left the country, 3.2 million of whom were in Latin
America and the Caribbean. Migrant flows could increase,
as electrical blackouts and the impact of U.S. sanctions on
declining oil production worsen social conditions.
Interim Government Challenges Maduro Regime
The National Assembly elected Juan Guaid6 as its president
on January 5, 2019; he is a 35-year-old industrial engineer
from the Popular Will (VP) party. In mid-January, Guaid6
announced he was willing to serve as interim president until
new presidential elections are held. Buoyed by a massive
turnout for protests he called for, Guaid6 took the oath of
office on January 23, 2019. The United States and 54 other
countries (including most of the European Union [EU] and
15 Western Hemisphere countries) recognize Guaid6 as
interim president of Venezuela and view the National
Assembly as Venezuela's only democratic institution.
Updated August 26, 2019
Under Guaid6's leadership, the National Assembly has
since enacted resolutions declaring Maduro's mandate
illegitimate, establishing a framework for a transition
government, drafting a proposal to offer amnesty for
officials who support the transition, and creating a strategy
for receiving humanitarian assistance.
Guaid6's supporters organized two high-profile efforts to
encourage security forces to abandon the regime, but
neither succeeded. On February 23, they sought to bring
emergency supplies donated by the United States and others
positioned on the borders into the country. Security forces
loyal to Maduro killed seven individuals and injured
hundreds, as forces prevented aid convoys from crossing
the border. Some of that aid is being given to Venezuelans
and host communities in Colombia. Separately, Guaid6 and
Maduro agreed to allow the International Committee of the
Red Cross to provide aid within Venezuela.
On April 30, 2019, Guaid6 and Leopoldo L6pez, a former
political prisoner and head of the VP party who had been
released from house arrest by pro-Guaid6 military officials,
called for a civil-military rebellion against Maduro. Forces
loyal to Maduro violently put down pro-Guaid6 supporters
and attacked journalists. Resulting clashes resulted in four
deaths and hundreds of injuries and arrests. As the day
ended, L6pez sought refuge in the Spanish Embassy.
Many observers regard the military's participation as
essential for the opposition's transition plan to work. For
now, however, most of the military high command appears
to remain loyal to Maduro. Many military leaders have
enriched themselves through corruption, drug trafficking,
and other illicit industries. Some military leaders may fear
that they could face prosecution for human rights abuses
under a new government, even though the opposition has
proposed amnesty for those who join their side.
Human Rights Concerns
Human rights abuses have increased as security forces and
civilian militias have violently quashed protests and
detained and abused those suspected of dissent. In 2017,
security forces committed serious human rights violations
during clashes with protesters that left more than 130 killed
and thousands injured. A July 2019 report by the Office of
the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR)
estimates that security forces committed some 6,800
extrajudicial killings from January 2018 through May 2019.
OHCHR also details how intelligence agencies have
arrested and tortured those perceived as threats to Maduro,
including military officers and opposition politicians. In
June 2019, a naval officer died after being tortured in
custody. Maduro loyalists arrested Guaid6's chief of staff in
March and the vice president of the National Assembly in
May. Some fear Guaid6 could face arrest.
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