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handle is hein.crs/govbaqf0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Ir o rq it Iegislatve dtate s nce 1914 Congressional Research Service 0 Updated August 2, 2019 U.S. Withdrawal from the INF Treaty: What's Next? U.S. Withdrawal On August 2, 2019, the United States withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. It had notified Russia of its intent to withdraw on February 2, 2019, and, consistent with Article XV of the treaty, the withdrawal took effect six months later. The United States withdrew from the treaty in response to Russia's deployment of an INF-range ground-launched cruise missile, which violated the treaty's ban on missiles with a range between 500 and 5,500 kilometers (see CRS Report R43832, Russian Compliance with the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty: Background and Issues for Congress). President Trump first indicated that the United States would withdraw from INF on October 20, 2018. He not only cited Russia's violation, but also argued that the United States is at a disadvantage with respect to China because the latter is not bound by the treaty's limits. On December 4, 2018, after a meeting of NATO's foreign ministers, Secretary of State Pompeo declared that Russia was in material breach of the treaty and announced that the United States would suspend its obligations, effective in 60 days, unless Russia returns to full and verifiable compliance. This 60-day period ended on February 2, 2019. U.S. Military Options The United States first assessed in 2014 that Russia was in violation of its obligations under the INF Treaty. It determined that Russia had developed an intermediate- range ground-launched cruise missile, now known as the 9M729. At the time, the Pentagon initiated a study to evaluate whether the United States needed new military capabilities to offset any advantage Russia might acquire by deploying a ground-launched cruise missile of INF range (between 500 and 5,500 kilometers). While the results of the study were not made public, Brian McKeon, then the Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, noted that the United States could respond by deploying new defenses against cruise missiles, developing and possibly deploying new intermediate-range missiles, and deploying other military capabilities to counter the new Russian capabilities. While generally supportive of diplomatic efforts to bring Russia back into compliance with INF, Congress also supported the development of a military response. The FY2015 National Defense Authorization Act (P.L. 113-291, § 1651) and FY2016 National Defense Authorization Act (P.L. 114-92, § 1243) called on the Pentagon to study and plan for the development of possible military options. The FY2018 National Defense Authorization Act (P.L. 115-91, § 1243) authorized funding for research into defenses, counterforce capabilities, and countervailing capabilities and mandated that DOD begin a program of record to develop a new U.S. ground-launched cruise missile. Some Members, have, however, criticized the decision to withdraw from the treaty and proposed legislation that would limit the production and deployment of new systems. Some analysts argue that the United States does not have to deploy new land-based missiles to respond to Russia's new missile or to address challenges from China; it could deploy more sea-based or air-delivered weapons that are not limited by the INF Treaty. In a briefing on February 1, 2019, a senior U.S. government official noted that the United States does not plan to deploy any INF-range systems immediately, as it had not developed such systems while the treaty was in force. The official also noted that the United States was considering only conventional options and did not, at this time, plan to develop new nuclear-armed INF-range missiles. The United States could pursue a number of INF-range programs and technologies that could add potentially valuable capabilities. For example, the Army is developing a new Precision Strike Missile with a range of 499 kilometers (consistent with the INF Treaty), but could extend it with little difficulty. The United States could also adapt existing sea-based Tomahawk cruise missiles for land-based delivery by developing new or adapting existing land-based launchers, such as the MK-41 launchers that are part of the U.S. missile defense system in Romania. (Russia has expressed concerns about these launchers precisely because it fears they could be adapted to launch Tomahawk cruise missiles.) It could also acquire a new intermediate- range ballistic missile and deploy it with either existing reentry vehicle technology (essentially replacing the Pershing II missiles destroyed under INF), or design a new trajectory-shaping reentry vehicle that could maneuver and glide to evade an adversary's missile defenses. In March 2019, the Pentagon announced that it would test a new ground-launched cruise missile in August 2019, just after the U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty was complete. It also indicated that it would test a new intermediate-range ballistic missile in November 2019. The cruise missile, which would essentially be a Tomahawk missile in a container placed on a mobile launcher, might be deployed 18 months later. The ballistic missiles, which would be similar to the Pershing II missile deployed in the 1980s, would take at least five years to reach deployment. Issues in Asia Several analysts have argued that the INF Treaty places the United States at a disadvantage when addressing challenges from China because China has deployed thousands of land- https:!icrsreports~cong --

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