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1 1 (June 13, 2019)

handle is hein.crs/govbadz0001 and id is 1 raw text is: *~ Congressional Research Service Informing the legislative debate since 1914 Updated June 13, 2019 Central American Migration: Root Causes and U.S. Policy Recent Trends According to estimates from the digital publication Lawfare, approximately 265,000 people, on average, have left the Northern Triangle region of Central America (composed of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras) in each of the past five years, with the majority bound for the United States. More than twice as many people may leave the region this year, however, as an estimated 508,000 Salvadorans, Guatemalans, and Hondurans left their homes and headed north during the first eight months of FY2019. Although total U.S. apprehensions of unauthorized migrants had been near historic lows in recent years, the arrival at the Southwest border of a growing number of Central American families and children, many of whom are seeking asylum, reportedly has strained the U.S. immigration system. Congress has sought to understand and address the root causes of these migration trends. Figure I. Northern Triangle of Central America Source: Map Resources. Adapted by CRS. Root Causes Most analysts characterize this flow as mixed migration, with some individuals traveling north for economic opportunity, others seeking refuge from violence and insecurity, and many in search of both. In October 2018, the International Organization for Migration conducted a rapid survey of a group of Salvadoran migrants who had banded together into a caravan to make the journey north. It found that nearly 52% cited economic opportunity as their motive for leaving the region, 18% cited violence and insecurity, 2% cited family reunification, and 28% cited a combination of those factors. Although motives vary by individual, difficult socioeconomic and security conditions-exacerbated by natural disasters and poor governance-appear to be the most important drivers of the current mixed migration flow. A 2017 Center for Global Development study suggests that migration may be self- reinforcing, as those who leave the region can share their experiences and provide migration assistance to those who remain behind through social networks or other means. Socioeconomic Conditions The Northern Triangle includes some of the poorest nations in the Western Hemisphere. Land ownership and economic power historically have been concentrated in the hands of a small group of elites, leaving behind a legacy of extreme inequality. Although the adoption of market-oriented economic policies in the 1980s and 1990s produced greater macroeconomic stability and facilitated the diversification of the region's once predominantly agricultural economies, the economic gains have not translated into improved living conditions for many of the region's residents (see Figure 2). In the Western Highlands of Guatemala, where significant out-migration has occurred over the past year, 76% of the population lives in poverty and 27% lives in extreme poverty according to the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). Figure 2. Poverty Rates in the Northern Triangle Percentage of population living below the national poverty line El Salvador 29.2% Guatemala Honduras Source: World Bank, DataBank, accessed in June 2019. Note: Data from most recent year available: 2017 for El Salvador, 2014 for Guatemala, and 2018 for Honduras. According to the World Bank, approximately 47% of Salvadorans, 56% of Guatemalans, and 52% of Hondurans are under the age of 25. Because of their relatively young populations, all three countries are expected to see a continued rise in their prime working age populations over the next two decades. Although this presents a window of opportunity to boost economic growth, the region is failing to generate sufficient employment to absorb the growing labor supply. In 2017, for example, the Northern Triangle's labor force increased by more than 353,000 people, but fewer than 35,000 jobs were created in the formal economy, according to the Inter-American Dialogue, an international affairs think tank. The vast majority of new workers were left to work in the unregulated informal sector, without job protections or benefits, or search for opportunity elsewhere. Vulnerability to Natural Disasters External shocks have exacerbated the difficult socioeconomic conditions in the region. According to the 2018 World Risk Index, El Salvador and Guatemala are among the 15 countries in the world most at risk from natural disasters, due to their frequent exposure and weak response capacity. The Central American Dry Corridor, ttps://crsreports.congress.go' 59.3% 61.9%

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