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Congresional Csrch Ser vic
Venezuela: Political Crisis and U.S. Policy
The political situation in Venezuela is at a stalemate. High-
level military leaders did not back interim President Juan
Guaid6's April 30, 2019, call for an uprising against
NicolAs Maduro. Clashes between pro-Guaid6 protesters
and security forces resulted in four deaths and hundreds of
injuries. While some observers maintain that Maduro is
weak politically, others fear a prolonged, potentially violent
standoff between the respective supporters of Maduro and
Guaid6. Both sides sent envoys to Norway in May for
exploratory talks, but actions taken against the opposition
by Maduro could hinder a negotiated solution to the crisis.
Background on the Political and Economic Crisis
Venezuela remains in a deep crisis under Maduro's
authoritarian rule. Maduro, leader of the United Socialist
Party of Venezuela (PSUV), was narrowly elected in 2013
after the death of populist President Hugo ChAvez, who had
served since 1999. Most Venezuelans and much of the
international community considered Maduro's May 2018
reelection illegitimate. Maduro has used the courts, security
forces, and electoral council to quash dissent. According to
the human rights organization Foro Penal, the regime held
773 political prisoners as of June 2019.
Maduro's regime has mismanaged the economy and
engaged in massive corruption, exacerbating the impact of a
decline in global oil prices and collapsing oil production on
the country's economy. According to the International
Monetary Fund, Venezuela's economy contracted by 18%
in 2018. Inflation may exceed 10 million percent in 2019.
Shortages in food and medicine, declines in purchasing
power, and a collapse of social services have created a
humanitarian crisis. In April 2019, U.N officials estimated
that some 90% of Venezuelans are living in poverty and 7
million are in need of humanitarian assistance. Health
indicators, particularly infant and maternal mortality rates,
have worsened. Previously eradicated diseases like
diphtheria and measles have returned and spread. In June
2019, U.N. agencies estimated that at least 4 million
Venezuelans had left the country, 3.2 million of whom were
in Latin America and the Caribbean. Migrant flows could
increase, as recent electrical blackouts have worsened
conditions, including access to potable water, considerably.
Interim Government Challenges Maduro Regime
The National Assembly elected Juan Guaid6 as its president
on January 5, 2019; he is a 35-year-old industrial engineer
from the Popular Will (VP) party. In mid-January, Guaid6
announced he was willing to serve as interim president until
new presidential elections are held. Buoyed by a massive
turnout for protests he called for, Guaid6 took the oath of
office on January 23, 2019. The United States and 53 other
countries (including most of the European Union [EU] and
15 Western Hemisphere countries) recognize Guaid6 as
Updated June 13, 2019
interim president of Venezuela and view the National
Assembly as Venezuela's only democratic institution.
Under Guaid6's leadership, the National Assembly has
since enacted resolutions declaring Maduro's mandate
illegitimate, establishing a framework for a transition
government, drafting a proposal to offer amnesty for
officials who support the transition, and creating a strategy
for receiving humanitarian assistance.
Guaid6's supporters have organized two high-profile efforts
to encourage security forces to abandon the regime, neither
of which has succeeded. On February 23, they sought to
bring emergency supplies donated from the United States
and others positioned on the Colombia- and Brazil-
Venezuela borders into the country. Security forces loyal to
Maduro killed seven individuals and injured hundreds, as
forces prevented the aid convoys from crossing the border.
While that aid remains blocked, both Guaid6 and Maduro
agreed to allow the International Committee of the Red
Cross to begin providing aid.
On April 30, 2019, Guaid6 and Leopoldo L6pez, a former
political prisoner and head of the VP party who had been
released from house arrest by pro-Guaid6 military officials,
called for a civil-military rebellion against Maduro. Forces
loyal to Maduro violently put down pro-Guaid6 supporters
and attacked journalists. As the day ended, L6pez sought
refuge in the Spanish Embassy.
Many observers regard the military's participation as
essential for the opposition's transition plan to work. For
now, however, aside from the former head of the national
intelligence agency, the military high command appears to
remain loyal to Maduro. Many military leaders have
enriched themselves through corruption, drug trafficking,
and other illicit industries. Some military leaders may fear
that they could face prosecution for human rights abuses
under a new government, even though the opposition has
proposed amnesty for those who join their side.
Human Rights Concerns
Human rights abuses have increased as security forces and
civilian militias have violently quashed protests and
detained and abused those suspected of dissent. In 2017,
security forces committed serious human rights violations
during clashes with protesters that left more than 130 killed
and thousands injured. Maduro has ordered the arrest and
torture of those perceived as threats, including military
officers and opposition politicians, such as Guaid6's chief
of staff. Analysts predict increasing repression as Maduro
has called for the arrest of L6pez and opposition lawmakers
involved in the April 30 uprising. After Maduro loyalists
arrested the vice president of the National Assembly in
early May, some fear Guaid6 could also face arrest or exile.
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