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Venezuela: Political Crisis and U.S. Policy
The political situation in Venezuela has been at a stalemate
since Juan Guaid6, head of the National Assembly, became
interim president of Venezuela in January 2019. Although
the United States and 53 other countries recognize Guaid6's
government, he has been unable to wrest NicolAs Maduro
from power and convene free and fair elections. Guaid6 and
Maduro have engaged in talks to end the standoff since
May, but actions taken by security forces loyal to Maduro,
including the torture and killing of a naval officer in
custody, have hindered prospects for a negotiated solution.
Background on the Political and Economic Crisis
Maduro, leader of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela
(PSUV), was narrowly elected in 2013 after the death of
populist President Hugo ChAvez, who had served since
1999. Most Venezuelans and much of the international
community considered Maduro's May 2018 reelection
illegitimate. Maduro has used the courts, security forces,
and electoral council to quash dissent. The human rights
organization Foro Penal estimated that the regime held 601
political prisoners as of July 1, 2019. Maduro has since
pledged to release 22 of those prisoners.
Maduro's government has mismanaged the economy and
engaged in massive corruption, exacerbating the impact of a
decline in global oil prices and collapsing oil production on
the country's economy. According to the International
Monetary Fund, Venezuela's economy contracted by 18%
in 2018. Inflation may exceed 10 million percent in 2019.
Shortages in food and medicine, declines in purchasing
power, and a collapse of social services have created a
humanitarian crisis. In April 2019, U.N officials estimated
that some 90% of Venezuelans are living in poverty and 7
million are in need of humanitarian assistance. Health
indicators, particularly infant and maternal mortality rates,
have worsened. Previously eradicated diseases like
diphtheria and measles have returned and spread. In June
2019, U.N. agencies estimated that at least 4 million
Venezuelans had left the country, 3.2 million of whom were
in Latin America and the Caribbean. Migrant flows could
increase, as electrical blackouts have worsened conditions,
including access to potable water, considerably.
Interim Government Challenges Maduro Regime
The National Assembly elected Juan Guaid6 as its president
on January 5, 2019; he is a 35-year-old industrial engineer
from the Popular Will (VP) party. In mid-January, Guaid6
announced he was willing to serve as interim president until
new presidential elections are held. Buoyed by a massive
turnout for protests he called for, Guaid6 took the oath of
office on January 23, 2019. The United States and 53 other
countries (including most of the European Union [EU] and
15 Western Hemisphere countries) recognize Guaid6 as
interim president of Venezuela and view the National
Assembly as Venezuela's only democratic institution.
Updated July 8, 2019
Under Guaid6's leadership, the National Assembly has
since enacted resolutions declaring Maduro's mandate
illegitimate, establishing a framework for a transition
government, drafting a proposal to offer amnesty for
officials who support the transition, and creating a strategy
for receiving humanitarian assistance.
Guaid6's supporters organized two high-profile efforts to
encourage security forces to abandon the regime, neither of
which succeeded. On February 23, they sought to bring
emergency supplies donated by the United States and others
positioned on the Colombia- and Brazil-Venezuela borders
into the country. Security forces loyal to Maduro killed
seven individuals and injured hundreds, as forces prevented
the aid convoys from crossing the border. Some of that aid
is being distributed to Venezuelans and host communities in
Colombia. Separately, both Guaid6 and Maduro agreed to
allow the International Committee of the Red Cross to
provide aid within Venezuela.
On April 30, 2019, Guaid6 and Leopoldo L6pez, a former
political prisoner and head of the VP party who had been
released from house arrest by pro-Guaid6 military officials,
called for a civil-military rebellion against Maduro. Forces
loyal to Maduro violently put down pro-Guaid6 supporters
and attacked journalists. Resulting clashes resulted in four
deaths and hundreds of injuries and arrests. As the day
ended, L6pez sought refuge in the Spanish Embassy.
Many observers regard the military's participation as
essential for the opposition's transition plan to work. For
now, however, aside from the former head of the national
intelligence agency, the military high command appears to
remain loyal to Maduro, who reappointed his defense
minister on July 5, 2019. Many military leaders have
enriched themselves through corruption, drug trafficking,
and other illicit industries. Some military leaders may fear
that they could face prosecution for human rights abuses
under a new government, even though the opposition has
proposed amnesty for those who join their side.
Human Rights Concerns
Human rights abuses have increased as security forces and
civilian militias have violently quashed protests and
detained and abused those suspected of dissent. In 2017,
security forces committed serious human rights violations
during clashes with protesters that left more than 130 killed
and thousands injured. A July 2019 report by the Office of
the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR)
estimates that security forces committed some 6,800
extrajudicial killings from January 2018 through May 2019.
OHCHR also details how intelligence agencies have
arrested and tortured those perceived as threats to Maduro,
including military officers and opposition politicians.
Maduro loyalists arrested Guaid6's chief of staff in March
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