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1 (August 1, 2005)

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                                                                Order Code  RS21391
                                                              Updated  August 1, 2005



 CRS Report for Congress

               Received through the CRS Web



          North Korea's Nuclear Weapons:
                   How Soon an Arsenal?

                          Sharon  A. Squassoni
                      Specialist in National Defense
               Foreign Affairs, Defense and  Trade Division

Summary


     North Korea ended the eight-year freeze on its nuclear program in late 2002,
 expelling international inspectors and restarting plutonium production facilities. Before
 then, the CIA estimated that North Korea might have enough plutonium (Pu) for 1 or 2
 weapons. Since then, North Korea may have reprocessed the 8000 spent fuel rods
 previously under seal at Yongbyon, yielding enough Pu for 6 or 8 weapons. In 2005,
 North Korea announced it had nuclear weapons and was building more. It restarted
 construction on two larger reactors, and shut down its small reactor, possibly to extract
 plutonium. In July 2005, North Korea rejoined the Six Party talks after a 13-month
 hiatus. Two unknowns in estimating the size of North Korea's arsenal are the status of
 its uranium enrichment efforts and whether Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan gave North
 Korea a weapons design, as he did to Libya. This report will be updated as needed.

 Background

    In the early1980s, U.S. satellites tracked a growing indigenous nuclear program in
North Korea. A small nuclear reactor at Yongbyon (5MWe), capable of producing about
6kg of plutonium per year, began operating in 1986.1 Later that year, U.S. satellites
detected high explosives testing and a new plant to separate plutonium. In addition,
construction of two larger reactors (50MWe at Yongbyon and 200MWe at Taechon)
added to the mounting evidence of a serious clandestine effort. Although North Korea
had joined the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 1985, the safeguards inspections that
began only in 1992 raised questions about how much plutonium North Korea had
produced covertly that still have not been resolved. In 1994, North Korea pledged, under
the Agreed Framework with the United States, to freeze its plutonium programs and
eventually dismantle them in return for several kinds of assistance.2 At that time, Western




1 5MWe is a power rating for the reactor, indicating that it produces 5 million watts of electricity
per day (very small). Reactors are also described in terms of million watts of heat (MW thermal).
2 See CRS Issue Brief 1B91141, North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Program.

       Congressional  Research  Service  4- The Library of Congress

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