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1 (March 18, 2005)

handle is hein.crs/crsmthabbmk0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Order Code RS21391 Updated March 18, 2005 CRS Report for Congress Received through the CRS Web North Korea's Nuclear Weapons: How Soon an Arsenal? Sharon A. Squassoni Specialist in National Defense Foreign Affairs, Defense and Trade Division Summary North Korea ended the eight-year-old freeze on its nuclear program in December 2002, expelling international inspectors and restarting its plutonium production facilities. Before 2002, the CIA estimated that North Korea might have enough plutonium (Pu) for 1 or 2 weapons. If the 8000 spent fuel rods at Yongbyon, which had previously been under seal, were successfully reprocessed in 2003, as North Korean officials claim, North Korea would have enough Pu for 6 or 8 weapons. The new fuel at the Yongbyon reactor could yield enough material for 3 more weapons by 2007. An unknown factor is the status of North Korea's uranium enrichment efforts, particularly given the aid of Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan. This report will be updated as warranted. Background In the early1980s, U.S. satellites tracked a growing indigenous nuclear program in North Korea. A small nuclear reactor at Yongbyon (5MWe), capable of producing about 6kg of plutonium per year, began operating in 1986.1 Later that year, U.S. satellites detected high explosives testing and a new plant to separate plutonium (a necessary step before turning the plutonium into metal for a warhead). In addition, the construction of two larger reactors (50MWe at Yongbyon and 200MWe at Taechon) added to the mounting evidence of a serious clandestine effort. Although North Korea had joined the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 1985, safeguards inspections began only in 1992. Those inspections raised questions about how much plutonium North Korea had produced covertly that still have not been resolved. In 1994, North Korea pledged, under the Agreed Framework with the United States, to freeze its plutonium programs and eventually dismantle them in return for several kinds of assistance.2 At that time, Western intelligence agencies estimated that North Korea had separated enough plutonium for one to two bombs; other sources claimed it was enough for 4-5 bombs. 1 5MWe is a power rating for the reactor, indicating that it produces 5 million watts of electricity per day (very small). Reactors are also described in terms of million watts of heat (MW thermal). 2 See CRS Issue Brief 1B91141, North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Program. Congressional Research Service 4- The Library of Congress

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