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1 1 (January 7, 2019)

handle is hein.crs/crseveryaabbc0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Congressional *.Research Service Economic Effects of the FY2019 Government Shutdown name redacted Specialist in Macroeconomic Policy January 7, 2019 On December 22, 2018, funding lapsed for certain federal agencies, initiating a shutdown of those agencies. This Insight discusses how the shutdown could affect the overall economy. Official economic data will not be available for some time, and the data needed to answer some questions about the shutdown will never be available. Instead, the Insight reviews private forecasts, relevant data concepts, and evidence of the economic effects of the 16-day FY2014 shutdown (which occurred in October 2013). For more information on government shutdowns, see CRS Report RL34680, Shutdown of the Federal Government: Causes, Processes, and Effects, coordinated by (name redacted). Effect on Economic Activity The economic effects of the shutdown depend on its scope and duration. Assuming funding remains at the levels previously agreed to in the Bipartisan Budget Act (P.L. 115-123) when the shutdown ends, the shutdown mainly shifts the timing of federal spending but does not alter the total amount of spending- after the shutdown ends, an equivalent amount of spending that was postponed during the shutdown should eventually take place. The economic effects of this shutdown for the fourth quarter of 2018 are limited by the fact that it covered only the last 11% of the quarter. In this case, because the shutdown has spanned the fourth quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019, some federal spending will be shifted between quarters. The share of federal spending shifted from the fourth quarter may be tempered by the fact that the shutdown occurred during the holidays. A number of agencies within the federal government already have received appropriations for FY2019 in P.L. 115-244 and P.L. 115-245, leaving only a portion of the federal government unfunded during the current shutdown. The limited scope of the shutdown also limits the overall economic impact. Using data from the Congressional Budget Office, the Congressional Research Service estimates that the remaining Congressional Research Service 7-.... www.crs.gov IN11011 CRS INSIGHT Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress

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