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500 Annals Am. Acad. Pol. & Soc. Sci. 8 (1988)

handle is hein.cow/anamacp0500 and id is 1 raw text is: ANNALS, AAPSS, 500, November 1988 Eliminating the Federal Budget Deficit Without Recession By F. GERARD ADAMS ABSTRACT: The federal government's budget deficit of more than $150 billion, some 3 to 4 percent of gross national product, is widely perceived as a serious problem. This article considers policy for wiping out the deficit without recession. Simulations of the Wharton econometric model show that a tax increase would have some slowing effect on the economy but would not cause a recession. Recognition of the possibilities for monetary stimulus, once the deficit is in hand, suggests that the domestic budget deficit can be eliminated without causing an economic slowdown. On the other hand, fixing the domestic budget deficit does not automatically deal with international trade imbalance, which will require other policies and/or international policy coordination in order to be corrected. F. Gerard Adams is professor of economics and finance at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is also director of the Economics Research Unit and codirector of the Center for Analysis of Developing Economies. He has worked extensively on econometric models of nations, commodity markets, energy, and industries. He has been a consultant to the United Nations, the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the U.S. Department of Commerce, the Federal Reserve, and the World Bank. His most recent book is The Business Forecasting Revolution (1986). 8

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