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369 Annals Am. Acad. Pol. & Soc. Sci. 1 (1967)

handle is hein.cow/anamacp0369 and id is 1 raw text is: A Long-Range View of World Population Growth By JOHN D. DURAND ABSTRACT: Mankind is undergoing an extraordinary ex- pansion of numbers, unparalleled in history, which began in the eighteenth century and which has gathered increasing momentum since the beginning of the present century. The increase of the earth's human population during the last two hundred years has been three times greater than the cumulated growth during all the previous millennia of man's existence on the planet, and it appears likely that a still greater increase may be in store for the future, before a position of numerical stability is reached. The speeding up of population growth has been brought about by a great improvement in the condi- tions of mortality, which has enhanced the biological power of multiplication of the species. This has been partly offset in the economically more developed countries by restraint of reproduction, but reproduction rates remain undiminished in most of the less developed countries. The latter countries contain the major share of world population and are receiving an even larger share of the current increase resulting from the excess of births over deaths throughout the world. The crux of the world population problem is in the association of per- sistent poverty and technological retardation with unremitting rapid growth of numbers in the less developed countries. John D. Durand, Ph.D., Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, is Professor of Economics and Sociology and Chairman of the Graduate Group in Demography at the University of Pennsylvania. Formerly of the Population Division, United States Bureau of the Census, he joined the United States Secretariat in 1948 and remained there until 1965 as a staff member of the Population Branch, taking charge of the Branch from 1954 onward as Assistant Director of the Bureau of Social Affairs. He is the author of The Labor Force in the United States, 1890-1960 (1948) and various articles on population questions. 1

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