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1 Report on the Troubled Asset Relief Program-April 2019 1 (April 2019)

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                    ~APRIL 2019





Report on the Troubled Asset Relief

               Program-April 2019


In October 2008, the Emergency Economic Stabilization
Act of 2008 (Division A of Public Law 110-343) estab-
lished the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) to
enable the Department of the Treasury to promote
stability in financial markets through the purchase and
guarantee of troubled assets.' Section 202 of that
legislation, as amended, requires annual reports from the
Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on the costs
of the program. The law also requires the Congressional
Budget Office to submit its own reports within 45 days
of the issuance of OMB's report each year.2 CBO's assess-
ment must discuss three elements:

* The costs of purchases and guarantees of troubled
   assets,


1. That law defines troubled assets as (A) residential or commercial
   mortgages and any securities, obligations, or other instruments
   that are based on or related to such mortgages, that in each
   case was originated or issued on or before March 14, 2008, the
   purchase of which the Secretary determines promotes financial
   market stability; and (B) any other financial instrument that the
   Secretary, after consultation with the Chairman of the Board
   of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, determines the
   purchase of which is necessary to promote financial market
   stability, but only upon transmittal of such determination, in
   writing, to the appropriate committees of Congress (Sec. 3 of
   PL. 110-343, 122 Stat. 3767).
2. Originally, the law required OMB and CBO to submit
   semiannual reports. That provision was changed to an annual
   reporting requirement by PL. 112-204. OMB's most recent
   report on the TARP was submitted on March 18, 2019. See
   Office of Management and Budget, Budget of the United
   States Government, Fiscal Year 2020: Analytical Perspectives
   (March 2019), pp. 295-304, www.whitehouse.gov/omb/
   analytical-perspectives.


* Information CBO collects and the valuation methods
   it uses to calculate those costs, and

* The program's effects on the federal budget deficit
   and debt.

To fulfill that requirement, CBO has prepared this
report on TARP transactions completed, outstanding, or
anticipated as of February 28, 2019. By CBO's estimate,
$443 billion of the $700 billion initially authorized will
be disbursed through the TARP, consisting of $441 bil-
lion already disbursed and $2 billion in projected future
disbursements. CBO estimates that the government's
total subsidy costs-including those already realized
and those stemming from outstanding and anticipated
transactions-will be $31 billion (see Table 1).

The estimated cost of the TARP stems largely from
ongoing grant programs aimed at preventing foreclosures
on home mortgages, assistance to American International
Group (AIG), and aid to the automotive industry. Taken
together, other transactions with financial institutions
have yielded a net gain to the federal government from
interest, dividends, and capital gains.

CBO's current assessment of the TARP's costs is $1 bil-
lion lower than the $32 billion estimate it reported in
March 2018.' The decrease stems from a drop in pro-
jected disbursements for mortgage programs. CBO's
current estimate for all TARP transactions is $1 billion
lower than OMB's latest estimate of $32 billion because

3. See Congressional Budget Office, Report on the TroubledAsset
   Relief Program-March 2018 (March 2018), www.cbo.gov/
   publication/53617.


Note: Numbers in the text and tables may not sum to totals because of rounding.

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