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1 Monthly Budget Review for November 2020 1 (December 8, 2020)

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                              -                                                   December  8, 2020




       Monthly Budget Review for November 2020


The federal budget deficit totaled $430 billion in October and November 2020, the first two months of
fiscal year 2021, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. That amount is $87 billion more than the
deficit recorded during the same period last year. Outlays were higher by 9 percent, and revenues were
lower by 3 percent, than in October and November 2019.

Because December  1, 2019, fell on a weekend, outlays through November in that year were boosted by the
shift of certain payments from December to November. If not for those timing shifts, outlays so far this
year would have been $123 billion greater than those in the same period last year, and the deficit would
have risen more-by  $136 billion.

                                 Budget Totals, October-November
                                           Billions of Dollars

                              Actual,               Preliminary,            Estimated
                              FY 2020                 FY 2021                Change

          Receipts               471                    457                   -14
          Outlays                814                    887                    73

          Deficit (-)           -343                   -430                   -87
          Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of the Treasury. Based on the Monthly Treasury
          Statement for October 2020 and the Daily Treasury Statements for November 2020.
          FY = fiscal year.


Total Receipts  Down   by 3 Percent  in the First Two Months   of Fiscal Year 2021
Receipts totaled $457 billion during the first two months of fiscal year 2021, CBO estimates-$14 billion
less than during the same period last year. The changes between last year and this year were as follows:

   *  Individual income and payroll (social insurance) taxes together fell by $15 billion (or
      4 percent).

        o   Amounts  withheld from workers' paychecks fell by $20 billion (or 5 percent) because of a
            decline in wages and because of legislative actions taken in response to the coronavirus
            pandemic. The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act allows most
            employers to defer payment of their portion of the Social Security payroll tax and certain
            Railroad Retirement taxes on wages paid from March 27, 2020, through December 31, 2020.
            In addition, the Families First Coronavirus Response Act provides refundable credits against
            payroll taxes to compensate employers for paid sick leave and for family and medical leave;
            the CARES  Act provides a refundable credit against payroll taxes for employee retention.


Note: The amounts shown in this report include the surplus or deficit in the Social Security trust funds and the net cash
flow of the Postal Service, which are off-budget. Numbers may not sum to totals because of rounding.

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