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        Congressional Budget Office
\   Cost Estimate


July 17, 2019


By Fiscal Year, Millions of Dollars     2019                2019-2024               2019-2029

Direct Spending (Outlays)                  0                  -1.213                  -3585


Revenues

Net Increase in the Deficit


0

0


-40,177

38,964


-200,551

196,966


The bill would
  *  Eliminate an excise tax, enacted in 2010 and scheduled to start in 2022, on employment-based health
     insurance with premiums that exceed certain statutory thresholds


Estimated budgetary  effects would primarily stem from
  *  Foregone high-premium excise tax receipts
  *  Lower revenues from decreases in taxable compensation resulting from some employers and employees no
     longer shifting to lower-cost plans to avoid paying the tax


Areas of significant uncertainty include
  *  Predicting the extent to which the repeal of the excise tax would increase enrollment in higher-cost insurance
     plans

                               Detailed estimate begins on the next page.












                    See also CBO's Cost Estimates Explained, www.cbo.gov/publication/54437;
   How CBO  Prepares Cost Estimates, www.cbo.gov/publication/53519; and Glossary, www.cbo.gov/publication/42904.


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