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1 Monthly Budget Review: September 2021 1 (October 8, 2021)

handle is hein.congrec/mhybgtrw0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Congressional Budget Office Nonpatiisan Anialysis for the US. Congress Monthly Budget Review: September 2021 October 8, 2021 The federal budget deficit was $2.8 trillion in fiscal year 2021, the Congressional Budget Office estimates-$362 billion less than the deficit recorded in fiscal year 2020. Although outlays rose by an estimated $265 billion (or 4 percent), revenues rose more-by an estimated $627 billion (or 18 percent). Table 1. Fiscal Year Totals Billions of Dollars Estimated Change From 2020 to 2021 Actual, Actual, Preliminary, Billions of FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 Dollars Percent Receipts 3,462 3,420 4,047 627 18 Outlays 4447 6,552 6,817 265 4 Deficit (-) -984 -3,132 -2,770 362 -12 Data sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of the Treasury. Based on the Monthly Treasury Statements for August 2021 and September 2020 and the Daily Treasury Statements for September 2021. FY = fiscal year. Programs and policies implemented in response to the coronavirus pandemic-notably, refundable tax credits (particularly the recovery rebates), expanded unemployment compensation, and the Small Business Administration's Paycheck Protection Program-substantially boosted spending, in both 2021 and 2020.1 Outlays in fiscal year 2021 were about $2.4 trillion more than spending in 2019, an increase of more than 50 percent. Outlays in 2020 rose almost as much. As a result, the annual deficits recorded in 2020 and 2021 were significantly larger than the $984 billion shortfall recorded in fiscal year 2019. The deficit CBO now estimates for 2021 is $233 billion smaller than the shortfall estimated in its most recent baseline projections.2 Since CBO completed that estimate, income tax receipts have been greater than anticipated and outlays have been largely consistent with CBO's projections. 1. Among the laws enacted in 2020 and 2021 in response to the pandemic were the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act; the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021 (CAA); and the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (ARPA). 2. For details about CBO's most recent budget projections, see Congressional Budget Office, An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031 (July 2021), www.cbo.gov/publication/57218. The amounts shown in this report include the surplus or deficit in the Social Security trust funds and the net cash flow of the Postal Service, which are off-budget. Numbers may not sum to totals because of rounding.

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