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1 Monthly Budget Review for February 2018 1 (March 7, 2018)

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                                                                                      March 7, 2018





         Monthly Budget Review for February 2018


The federal budget deficit was $392 billion for the first five months of fiscal year 2018, the Congressional
Budget Office estimates, $42 billion more than the shortfall recorded during the same period last year.
Revenues  and outlays were higher, by 2 percent and 4 percent, respectively, than during the first five
months of fiscal year 2017.

As was the case last year, this year's outlays were affected by shifts in the timing of certain payments that
otherwise would have been due on a weekend. If not for those shifts, outlays and the deficit through
February would have been larger by more than $40 billion, both this year and last year-but the year-to-
year changes would not have been very different.


                                  Budget  Totals, October-February
                                            Billions of Dollars

                           Actual, FY 2017        Preliminary. FY 2018     Estimated Change

          Receipts              1.257                   1,287                    31
          Outlays               1.607                   1.679                    72

          Deficit (-)           -351                    -392                    -42
          Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of the Treasury. Based on the Monthly Treasury
          Statement for January 2017 and the Daily Treasury Statements for February 2018.
          FY = fiscal year.



Total Receipts:  Up  by 2 Percent   in the First Five Months  of Fiscal Year  2018
Receipts totaled $1,287 billion during the first five months of fiscal year 2018, CBO estimates-$31 billion
more than during the same period last year. That increase resulted from changes in receipts from the
following sources:

    m   Individual income and payroll (social insurance) taxes together rose by $52 billion
        (or 5 percent).
        o    Amounts  withheld from workers' paychecks rose by $54 billion (or 5 percent). That
             change largely reflects increases in wages and salaries that were partly offset beginning
             in February by a decline in the share of income withheld for taxes. In January, the
             Internal Revenue Service (IRS) issued new withholding tables to reflect changes made
             by Public Law 115-97, the major tax legislation enacted in December 2017. All
             employers were required to begin using the new tables by February 15, 2018.
         o   Nonwithheld payments  of income and payroll taxes rose by $10 billion (or 7 percent).
             The first quarterly payment of estimated individual income taxes in the current fiscal
             year was due by January 15. (That payment was for 2017 tax liability.)


Note: The amounts shown in this report include the surplus or deficit in the Social Security trust funds and the net cash
flow of the Postal Service, which are off-budget. Numbers may not add up to totals because of rounding.

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