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                   ~MAY 2019






Fair-Value Estimates of the Cost of

Federal Credit Programs in 2020


Summary
The federal government supports some private activities
by offering credit assistance to individuals and busi-
nesses. That assistance is provided through direct loans
and guarantees of loans made by private financial insti-
tutions. In this report, the Congressional Budget Office
estimates the lifetime costs of new loans and loan guar-
antees that are projected to be issued in 2020. The report
shows two kinds of estimates: those that were created
by following procedures currently used in the federal
budget, as prescribed by the Federal Credit Reform Act
of 1990 (FCRA); and those that account for the market
value of the government's obligations, which are called
fair-value estimates. Most of the FCRA estimates were
produced by other federal agencies, although CBO used
FCRA procedures to estimate the budgetary effects of the
largest federal credit programs. The fair-value estimates
were produced by CBO.

Using FCRA procedures, CBO estimates that new loans
and loan guarantees issued in 2020 would result in
savings of $31 billion. But using the fair-value approach,
CBO estimates that those loans and guarantees would
have a lifetime cost of $36.5 billion. More than 80 per-
cent of the difference between those amounts is attribut-
able to three sources:


* The guarantees that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
   are projected to make in 2020, analyzed on a
   FCRA basis, would save the federal government
   $19.2 billion. Under fair-value accounting, however,
   the guarantees would cost $1.5 billion.

* The Department of Housing and Urban
   Development's (HUD's) loan and loan guarantee
   programs are projected to save $7.3 billion on a
   FCRA basis but to cost $7.1 billion on a fair-value
   basis.

* The Department of Education's student loan
   programs are projected to save $4.1 billion on a
   FCRA basis but to cost $17.6 billion on a fair-value
   basis.

Federal Credit Programs
For this report, CBO analyzed the 85 programs through
which the federal government provides credit assistance.
The total amount of federal credit assistance projected for
2020 is $1.4 trillion, consisting of new direct loans that
total $128 billion and new loan guarantees that cover
$1.3 trillion of loans. Just a few programs are projected
to provide more than 90 percent of total federal credit
assistance-specifically, the programs offering mortgage


Notes: Numbers in the text, table, and figure may not add up to totals because of rounding. Unless the report indicates
otherwise, all years referred to are federal fiscal years, which run from October 1 to September 30 and are designated
by the calendar year in which they end. For the most part, this report uses the names for departments, agencies, and
programs that are given in the Office of Management and Budget's Federal Credit Supplement, which is available at
www.whitehouse.gov/omb/supplemental-materials.

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