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1 Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, January 2018 1 (January 31, 2018)

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                                                                              JANUARY   2018






Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit,

                        January 2018


The debt limit-commonly   called the debt ceiling-is
the maximum   amount of debt that the Department of
the Treasury can issue to the public or to other fed-
eral agencies. The amount is set by law and has been
increased over the years to finance the government's
operations. The limit was suspended on September 8,
2017. On  December  8, 2017, that suspension expired,
and the Secretary of the Treasury announced a debt
issuance suspension period during which existing
statutes allow the Treasury to take extraordinary mea-
sures to borrow additional funds without breaching the
debt ceiling.

The Congressional Budget Office projects that if the
debt limit remains unchanged, the ability to borrow
using extraordinary measures will be exhausted and the
Treasury will most likely run out of cash in the first half
of March 2018. If that occurred, the government would
be unable to pay its obligations fully, and it would delay
making  payments for its activities, default on its debt
obligations, or both. (The timing and size of revenue
collections and of outlays over the next few weeks could
differ noticeably from CBO's projections, however, so
the extraordinary measures could be exhausted and the
Treasury could run out of cash either earlier or later than
CBO   projects.)

CBO   previously projected that the extraordinary mea-
sures would be exhausted and the Treasury would run
out of cash sometime in late March or early April 2018.1
After incorporating the anticipated effects of recent tax
legislation and actual spending and revenue amounts in
December  into its calculations, CBO now projects the
range of possible dates as falling earlier in March.

1. See Congressional Budget Office, Federal Debt and the Statutory
   Limit, November 2017 (November 2017), www.cbo.gov/
   publication/53336.


Because the tax legislation reduced individual income
taxes for most taxpayers, the Internal Revenue Service
released new income tax withholding tables for
employers to use beginning no later than the middle of
February 2018. As a result of those changes, CBO now
estimates that, starting in February, withheld amounts
of individual income taxes will be roughly $10 billion to
$15 billion per month less than anticipated before the
new law was enacted. Consequently, withheld receipts
are expected to be less than the amounts paid in the
comparable period last year. In addition, the government
ran a deficit of $23 billion in December, and it normally
runs a deficit in the second quarter of the fiscal year.

What   Is the Current  Situation?
The Continuing Appropriations Act, 2018 and
Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Relief
Requirements Act, 2017 (Public Law 115-56), specified
that the amount of borrowing that occurred during
the suspension of the debt limit would be added to the
previous ceiling of $19.8 trillion. On December 9, 2017,
the debt limit was reset to $20.5 trillion to match the
amount  of outstanding debt.

Because P.L. 115-56 did not provide any additional
borrowing authority, under its standard operating pro-
cedures, the Treasury currently has no room to borrow
other than to replace maturing debt. To avoid breaching
the limit, the Treasury uses the extraordinary measures
that allow it to continue to borrow additional amounts
for a limited time. Continued use of those measures,
along with regular cash inflows over the next few
months, should allow the Treasury to finance the govern-
ment's activities for a few weeks without an increase in
the debt ceiling.


Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all years referred to are federal fiscal years, which run from October 1 to September 30 and are
designated by the calendar year in which they end. Numbers may not sum to totals because of rounding.

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